Amidst diplomacy dispute with Taiwan, China has established ties with Eswatini.

The US$146 million Mpakeni Dam, a project awarded to PowerChina’s subsidiary Sinohydro in 2023, is said to be the first engineering contracting project in eSwatini signed by a mainland Chinese enterprise, which epitomises China’s advancement in its trade & infrastructure ties with eSwatini despite a lack of diplomatic relations which might reflect China’s long game approach with the region.  In the landlocked nation’s southern region, a major power dam has been under construction by state-owned Chinese company PowerChina since last year.

Once complete, the dam will hold 120 million cubic metres of water and would facilitate irrigation up to 5,000 hectares (12,355 acres) of land. According to PowerChina’s report, this will “promote the country’s agricultural development, ensure food security and realise the diversification of crop planting, which is also significant to eradicating hunger and poverty in the country”. It is also a component of the much larger Mkhondvo-Ngwavuma Water Augmentation Project, which has a total expected cost of US$2.8 billion and is funded by the African Development Bank. The construction is expected to take more than four years, according to PowerChina. The project is moving forward despite eSwatini’s long-standing diplomatic relations with Taipei, a position that contradicts Beijing’s one-China policy.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory, to be brought under mainland control by force, if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise the island as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo. China had an important economic relationship with eSwatini for many years, and the recent deals in the country were more important as China is playing the long game. The more influence it builds in eSwatini’s economic sector, the more influence it will eventually have at the political level.

In 2024, eSwatini’s exports to mainland China amounted just US$456,000, dwarfed by its US$159 million in imports. This contrasts with trade with Taiwan, where exports amounted to about US$2.6 million and imports were US$8.2 million. Taiwan has focused on support in areas such as rural electrification and health, and high-profile projects include the King Mswati III International Airport and the Mbabane Government Hospital, which were funded by Taipei.

Beijing has also employed a “paradox of rationality” approach in Africa, offering incentives like a zero-tariff policy to 53 African nations with diplomatic relations while withholding benefits to eSwatini, the only African country to recognise Taiwan. When asked about eSwatini’s absence from the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit (FOCAC) last September, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said: “Developing official relations with the Taiwan region is not in eSwatini’s interest”.

She added that China believed eSwatini “will eventually see the prevailing trend, and make the right decision”, noting broad African support for the one-China principle and beneficial cooperation with Beijing. This strategy was also evident in Beijing’s intensified efforts to woo other remaining allies to Taipei.

Beyond the dam project in eSwatini, direct business engagement is also on the cards, particularly in sectors like mining. In 2023, the chairman of the Minerals Management Board, Prince Guduza, visited China where he also met potential investors. The move angered Taipei’s envoy in eSwatini. The government, however, denied the visit was to establish diplomatic relations.

According to Emmanuel Matambo, a research director at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, while Beijing used to pressure African countries to recognise it at Taipei’s expense, in recent years it had become less explicit and aggressive because the general trend in Africa is now to side with mainland China.

Eswatini’s negligible economic size and political clout at the global level do not compel China to lobby aggressively for recognition, even though China has not ruled out any formal relations with eSwatini.

A break with Taipei was unlikely as long as eSwatini’s King Mswati III, who has ruled since 1986, remained in power. It is also Taiwan’s only diplomatic allies on the continent after Burkina Faso switched to Beijing months before the 2018 FOCAC summit.

According to Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Centre, eSwatini has been able to maintain closer economic ties with Taiwan because “the royal family enjoys a particularly tight relationship with Taiwan. They are less susceptible to Chinese influence. Eswatini has maintained its relationship with Taiwan, but not for the lack of trying from the Chinese”, she said.

Team Maverick