Kumamoto; October 2026: The Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force has displayed defence equipment for the recently deployed long-range Type-25 surface-to-ship guided missile in southwestern Japan in an apparent bid to help ease local concerns. The event which was originally scheduled for August this year (2026) had to be postponed after a powerful earthquake hit Kumamoto Prefecture on July 28th.
The Type-25 is a domestically produced missile designed to be fired from a vehicle-mounted launcher positioned on the ground, and its flight range of approximately 1,000 kilometres puts some coastal areas of mainland China within reach. The Japanese government is augmenting its defences in response to an increasingly severe security environment, including by acquiring counterstrike capabilities. The SDF can launch Type-25 missiles from Camp Kengun in Kumamoto Prefecture.
The Type-25 missile is set to be incorporated into a Japan-US joint drill known as Keen Sword later this month, marking its first participation in a large exercise since its deployment in March.
The event was not meant to be an interactive session to exchange views but was organized as an exhibition. Local residents have apprehended that the area could become a target in the event of an emergency. Japan has been focusing more of its defence assets in the southwestern region amid threats from an assertive China and North Korea's nuclear and missile development.
Maki Kushida, an official from the Kyushu Defence Bureau, told media reporters at the camp that the event had been "an opportunity for people to gain a deeper understanding", adding further that “attendees have asked questions about the equipment's capabilities”.
It is globally understood that counterstrike capabilities are key, as they force not only Japan, but China; North Korea; Russia to change their calculus, knowingly that if they launch an attack on Japan, they will be receiving the same treatment -- from both Japan and the US. That's a powerful deterrent. This deterrent will be even more powerful if it eventually develops per the original reports: roll-out to other locations; ship/air-launched variants; and range upgrade to around 1,500-2,000 km.
Earlier, in January 2021 – Japan had decided to extend the range of Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles (SSM) manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries; most importantly the missile could be modified into an air-launched variant for the F-15J fighters.
Originally, an extended-range version of the Type 12 SSM was under development and was scheduled to be developed over a five-year period starting in FY2017. This range extension basically did not change the basic character of the Type 12 SSM in any significant way. However, the one decided on this time is different from that.
According to documents then released by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the increased range will be achieved by extending the size of the wings and the altitude at which the jet engines can operate. In other words, the Type 12 SSM will be able to fly at a higher altitude than before. According to the Sankei Shimbun and Mainichi Shimbun, two of Japan’s major media outlets, these improvements will significantly extend the range of the Type 12 SSM from 200 km to 900 km, with the goal of reaching 1,500 km in the future.
Furthermore, the Type 12 SSM did not adopt the same shape as the NSM and LRASM to ensure stealth performance. However, this modification will reduce the Radar Cross-Section (RCS) to ensure such stealth performance. As a result, its appearance will be completely different from the current one. Also, according to the MoD document mentioned earlier, the improved Type 12 SSM will be able to attack not only enemy naval vessels but also ground targets. In addition, the missiles will be updated with data about their targets via satellite communications during their flight, which will improve the accuracy of their attacks.
As then reiterated by the Japanese Government, the improvement of Type 12 SSM will be done in the period from FY2021 to FY2025. In order to realise this work in such a short period of time, the results of research on the new SSM for island defence (manufactured by Kawasaki Heavy Industries), which was then under development, will be reflected. The new SSM was scheduled to be developed from FY2019 to FY2023, and according to Sankei Shimbun, its range is targeted at 2,000 km.
This improvement of the Type 12 SSM is noteworthy for its relationship with the upgrade of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) to equip its F-15J fighter jets with long-range missiles. The Japanese government had planned to upgrade some of the F-15Js operated by the JASDF to replace their radar and electronic warfare equipment with the latest ones, and to enable them to carry JASSM-ER and LRASM. However, due to the higher-than-expected cost of the upgrade, it was not included in the FY2021 defense budget request. The original plan was to complete the upgrade of 20 F-15Js by FY2027, but that schedule is expected to be significantly delayed.
Under such circumstances, the improvement of the Type 12 SSM had then suddenly emerged, and the fact that its range will be increased to 900 km (similar to that of the JASSM-ER and LRASM) cannot be considered a mere coincidence. In addition, the MoD was looking to launch the modified Type 12 SSM not only from ground, but also from naval vessels and aircraft. In other words, the Type 12 SSM may be developed into an air-launched variant with the goal to integrate it on the F-15J.
Team Maverick.
