New Delhi/Washington DC; November 2026: The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in New Delhi, has released a report reiterating that India's fresh fruit market continues to expand, driven by a young population, rising incomes, and growing health awareness. Apples, pears, and grapes lead consumer demand. In the apple market, domestic production supplies seasonal volume at affordable prices, while imports fill off-season gaps and meet demand for premium, consistent quality. Imports have turned pears from a limited seasonal product into a year-round category by timing shipments to the gap between domestic harvests. India remains a major table grape exporter. Over the next decade, modernization, climate resilience, and new varieties should drive growth in the sector, although unseasonal weather swings and export challenges weighed on performance in marketing year 2025/26.
FAS New Delhi forecasts apple production for marketing year (MY) July–June 2026/27 at 2.59 million metric tons (MMT), up three% from the previous year estimate. The MY 2025/26 production estimate is revised lower by four%, to 2.50 MMT as the erratic weather dropped yields sharply in Himachal Pradesh, which is the second-largest apple-producing state.
Unseasonal spring rains and a delayed winter snowfall hurt the fruit set, and monsoon have damaged during the harvest season. In contrast, trade sources report that weather conditions in Jammu and Kashmir, the leading apple-producing region, were more favorable in MY 2025/26 than MY 2024/25 from flowering through harvest, supporting a larger, higher quality crop.
Apple Growing Regions: The union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, in the far north, is the country's dominant apple producer. It accounts for approximately 70% of domestic production. Himachal Pradesh, to its southeast, accounts for nearly 20%. Orchards in these regions grow mainly Red Delicious, Golden Delicious, Ambri, McIntosh, Granny Smith, and Rich-a-Red varieties. Uttarakhand contributes roughly 2.5%–06% of production, while Sikkim and Nagaland produce only small amounts.
Apple Production Constraints: Indian apple growers face serious challenges because the harvest season overlaps with the monsoon. They also face unstable markets, weak infrastructure, rising input costs, competition from imports, and logistical failures. Most apple-producing regions lie in remote, mountainous areas, which limits small-scale growers' access to markets. Apples spoil quickly, so poor roads, weak transportation networks, and limited cold storage often lead to post-harvest losses.
Limits of Government Intervention: Agriculture is primarily managed at the state level, and the States of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh operate a Market Intervention Scheme (MIS), a state-led apple procurement program. While the program is managed by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation, its bureaucratic complexity often creates challenges, making it difficult for growers to access reliable support despite the cooperative’s intended purpose. For example, switching orchards to high-density planting takes heavy upfront capital. Small-scale growers own most orchard land, and they struggle to afford this change without substantial direct financial help. In contrast, some private players have established independent warehouses and pricing schemes, leveraging modern infrastructure such as cold storage facilities. These companies bypass the traditional wholesale markets (Mandis) and their chain of commission agents, offering better prices for premium apples. However, their stringent grading systems—based on factors like size and color — resulting in very high prices for top-quality produce, while apples with minor blemishes sell for far less.
Consumption: The apple consumption forecast for MY 2026/2027 is 2.91 MMT, up by 05% from the
revised MY 2025/2026 estimate. Several factors such as rising disposable incomes, stronger demand for high-quality apples and a wider range of varieties (including imports), and greater health awareness drive the MY 2026/2027 growth forecast. Growing demand for processed apple products, such as juices, jams, sauces, and dried fruit, also supports consumption growth. The MY 2025/2026 consumption estimate is revised lower to 2.76 MMT due to lower-than-expected imports.
Fresh and Processed Consumption: Approximately 60% of apples are consumed fresh, while the remaining 40% – typically lower-quality fruit is processed into products such as sauces, jams, juices and food ingredients. The fastest-growing value-added products include ready-to-drink juices and beverages, health and wellness products, dehydrated snacks, jams, sauces, and purees.
E-commerce platforms and organized retail have made it easier for consumers to buy fresh apples, including premium imported varieties. Domestic production often falls short of demand, and imports fill the gap. Imported apples sell at higher prices because they last longer and have consistent quality. However, keeping quality high across the value chain remains hard, particularly in smaller cities. Refrigerated storage is limited, costs are high, and customers are spread out, which makes distribution complex.
Imports: The forecast for MY 2026/27 imports is at 511 thousand metric tons (TMT), up by 19% from the MY 2025/26 estimate, assuming market conditions move back toward historical patterns. Apple imports are lower at 428,750 metric tons (MT) in MY 2025/26 as it was under pressure from seasonal patterns, exchange rate swings, high freight costs, and India’s new trade agreements. The importers are carefully planning their inventory and have slowed purchases, at least until domestic supplies decline. The MY 2025/2026 and MY 2024/2025 estimates are revised to 428,750 MT and 510,930 MT respectively, based on the latest trade data.
While, Iran and Turkey lead the value segment, supplying large volumes at competitive prices. The United States and New Zealand lead the premium segment, where landed costs are higher and consumers expect consistency, safety, and variety. Imports of New Zealand apples rose almost 70%, from 31,629 MT in MY 2023/24 to 53,622 MT in MY 2025/26. Trade sources expect the India–New Zealand FTA to continue to drive growth.
Import Barriers:
·Non-tariff barriers continue to challenge apple exports to India. These include the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India’s requirement that imported apples must be accompanied by a certificate confirming the absence of genetically modified (GM)organisms and GM-origin. This requirement presents a challenge for exporters and impacts the US apple trade, as well as trade from other origins, by adding compliance burdens and potentially limiting market access. The United States implemented a temporary solution through the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA), which issues non-GMO and GM-free certificates exclusively to in-state stakeholders. Exporters outside of Washington State must obtain similar certification from their respective State Departments of Agriculture before shipping apples to India.
·Trade sources allege that Iranian apples are being imported into India under the guise of Afghanistan origin to exploit the Afghanistan-India free trade agreement and avoid import duties. Producer groups from Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir have repeatedly urged the Indian government to ban Iranian apples that are arriving under this relabeling practice.
In order to address this concern, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade published Notification No. 5/2023 on May 8, 2023, amending the import policy for apples. The revised policy bans the import of apples with a cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) value less than or equal to Indian rupees (INR) 50/kilogram (kg). Imports with a CIF value above INR 50/kilogram are classified as “Free”.
Bhutan is exempted from these minimum import price conditions. This policy represents a significant effort by the Indian government to address the under-invoicing of imported apples, particularly impacting shipments of lower value, unsorted (mixed) Iranian and Afghani apples.
Exports: The MY 2026/27 forecast for apple exports is at 42 TMT, up by 18% on expectations of higher supplies and demand from core neighboring export markets.
India’s fresh table grape production for MY 2026/27 (June-May) is forecast higher at 3.23 MMT, which is a 03% increase over revised MY 2025/26 estimate on reported higher planting and expanding acreage, driven by strong price realizations and a shift toward climate resilient, patented varieties such as Aara white, Crimson and Red Globe. The MY 2025/26 estimate is revised at 3.14 MMT. According to field sources, MY 2025/26 crop faced significant challenges and resulted in lower yields due to an unusually long monsoon and heavy unseasonal rainfall.
Output in major areas have dropped considerably, restricted harvest volumes, shortened the export
windows, and resulted in higher prices. This prompted some growers to sell locally rather than to
export channels. Key export hubs like Nashik saw a decline of almost 10% in total export shipments.
In India grape production is strongly concentrated in Maharashtra, particularly in the Nashik region, known as the “Wine Capital of India”, and a key Indian grape production hub contributing 70% of total domestic production. Other producing states include Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Madhya Pradesh.
Thompson Seedless (Sultana) is the dominant grape varietal, accounting for 55% of the total cultivated area. Other notable varieties include purple seeded types such as Bangalore Blue, Isabella, Gulabi Syn, and Muscat Hamburg; white seeded varieties like Anab-e-Shahi and Dilkhush; black seedless varieties such as Sharad and Beauty; white seedless varieties including Thompson, Pusa, Perlette, Tas-A-Ganesh, Sonaka, and Manik Chaman; and red seedless varieties like Flame. Each of these varietal group’s account for approximately 15% of cultivated area. Sultana and Sonaka are widely used for raisin production.
While 78% of the production is used as fresh grapes, 17% is dried for raisin production. Increasingly, Indian grape producers are shifting toward raisin production due to its potential for higher and more stable profits, particularly during periods of declining fresh grape prices and reduced yields. This trend is further supported by growing demand for raisins in both domestic and export markets. The raisin industry is concentrated in Maharashtra’s Sangli, Solapur, and Nasik districts, where lower-quality, thin-skinned grapes are primarily used for production.
Only 02% of grape production is allocated to winemaking, with the remainder used for juice production. However, regions like Nashik in Maharashtra are emerging as key hubs for wine production, fostering a growing domestic wine culture and attracting both local and international players. Although still a niche market compared to global counterparts, India’s wine industry is expanding rapidly. Some projections have India’s wine market to reaching as high as $892 million by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% between 2025 and 2033.8
Rising disposable incomes, evolving lifestyles, and increasing demand from urban millennials are key drivers of success in India’s wine market. Additionally, the rapid expansion of e-commerce is fueling this growth by providing consumers with the convenience of online shopping, particularly appealing to younger, tech-savvy demographics. However, the industry faces significant challenges due to India’s complex regulatory environment. Varying laws and regulations governing the sale and distribution of alcohol across different states create barriers for producers and distributors, complicating market expansion and operations.
Challenges Facing the Grape Sector: Grape cultivation is a high-profit venture for growers, but it presents significant challenges. Water scarcity, weather variability, and disease pressure are among the main challenges facing the grape sector. Additionally, land ownership fragmentation is hindering the adoption of advanced technologies in production. Moving forward, key factors for both domestic and export markets depend on greater professionalisation of producers, investment in infrastructure,
strengthening of cold chain, development of new varieties, consistency in supply, and traceability.
Government-Assisted Initiative: The primary government-assisted initiatives available for grape farmers include vineyard infrastructure and cultivation subsidies; micro-irrigation and solar subsidies; post-harvest and cold chain infrastructure; export incentives and supply chain support; and risk management and credit support. Additionally, the National Cooperative Exports Limited (NCEL), established and registered in 2023, is a government-backed initiative aimed at empowering farmers and cooperatives in India. NCEL provides critical support services to enable farmers, including grape growers and cooperative federations, to directly access global markets. By facilitating international trade, NCEL helps farmers secure higher prices for their products, particularly during periods of surplus production in domestic markets. This initiative strengthens the agricultural export framework and enhances the economic resilience of India’s farming communities.
Consumption: The table grape consumption forecast for MY 2026/27 is raised by 03% to 2.69 MMT on the assumption of higher supplies this year (production and imports). MY 2025/26 and MY 2024/25 consumption estimates have been revised to adjust higher imports.
Imports: India’s grape imports for MY 2026/27 is forecast at 35,000 MT, on expectations of continued strong domestic demand. Import estimates for MY 2025/26 and MY 2024/25 have been revised to 33,600 MT and 24,900 MT, respectively, based on the latest trade data. By volume, China remains India’s dominant supplier, accounting for 85% of imports, followed by Afghanistan at 10% and Chile at 04%.
India is also a significant importer and exporter in the raisin market. In MY 2025/26, while 33,980 MT of raisins were imported (HS Code 080620), primarily from Afghanistan, 15,769 MT were exported due to lower yields.
Exports: India is one of the leading global exporters of fresh table grapes, with the export forecast to rise by 22% in MY 2026/27 reaching 250 TMT. This growth percentage assumes that the grape regions recover from the adverse weather and logistics. Indian growers are now rapidly transitioning from traditional varieties to premium grapes which offer significantly higher yields and are more resilient to unseasonal rains.
India have exported 204 TMT of table grapes in MY 2025/26. By volume, which is approximately 40% of grape exports were shipped to the Netherlands, while 24% went to neighbouring Bangladesh.
Team Maverick.
