The War Would End Soon; Trump Says While Escalating.

Washington DC; March 2026: US President Donald Trump today early morning (IST) has threatened to escalate the war with Iran if it blocked oil shipments from the Middle East, even as he predicted ​a quick end to the conflict. Trump’s warning came at the end of a day (Monday – AST) that saw global financial markets seesawing on concerns that Iran’s security establishment was rallying behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and ‌was not prepared to back down any time soon.

Trump said the United States had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s air force and navy and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like. He warned that US attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever ​recover that section of the world”, Trump said at a news conference.

In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave the region if attacks ​from the United States and Israel continue. “We are the ones who will determine the end of the war”, a spokesperson said, while speaking to media reporters.

These conflicting signals have sent markets on ⁠a rollercoaster, with oil prices surging and stock markets nosediving before swinging in the other direction after Trump’s prediction of a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, a Shi’ite cleric with a power ​base among the security forces and their vast business empire, has been declared unacceptable by Trump, who has demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender, while Iranian’s at large in several cities rallied expressing their allegiance and solidarity towards the newly elected supreme leader, waving Iranian flags and holding portraits of his ​father Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed by an Israeli strike on the war’s first day.

It was indeedly a slap in the face of the Israel-US combined force, who was under the notion that the system will immediately collapse with the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The late supreme leader’s ​path will continue. Many Iranians had initially celebrated the elder Khamenei’s death, weeks after his security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters in the worst domestic unrest since the era of Iran’s 1979 revolution. ​But there has since been little sign of anti-government activity.

Israel says its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. US officials mainly say that their aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government. Israel had said it would kill whoever succeeded the elder Khamenei unless Iran ended its hostile policies.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas transport, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage fills. Brent crude futures jumped about 7% to settle at their highest price since 2022 after soaring by as much as 29% ​during the session, as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut ​supplies. But prices fell in post-settlement trade.

The price of ⁠gasoline has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir ​Putin, Trump said the United States will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage. According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian ​oil, which could complicate efforts to ⁠punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said.

Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air. On the otherside, Turkey said NATO air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment ⁠on the report.

Team Maverick.