UN Warns of Global Economic Shock as Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz; Guterres Calls for Immediate Restoration of Navigation

United Nations, April 2026 : UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the ongoing Iran war and the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp decline in global economic growth and significantly increase poverty levels across the world. He has reiterated his urgent call for the immediate restoration of free navigation through the strategically vital waterway.

Speaking to reporters, Guterres said the consequences of the conflict extend far beyond the region, stressing that while a few may be benefiting economically, the overall cost is being borne by humanity at large.

“As with every conflict, the whole of humanity is paying the price – even if a few are reaping huge profits,” he said, adding that “the pain will be felt for a long time to come.”

The Secretary-General cautioned that the impact of the crisis is not linear but “exponential,” warning that the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more difficult it will be to reverse the global damage. The Strait, which is a critical maritime route, accounts for nearly 20 percent of global oil and gas shipments.

The crisis has escalated after Iran blocked free navigation in the Strait, defying a United Nations Security Council resolution passed on March 11. In response, the United States has imposed its own blockade targeting Iranian ports, further intensifying tensions in the region. Efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict have stalled, largely due to disagreements over these reciprocal blockades.

Guterres said the United Nations is actively engaged in diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to contain the fallout. “I have remained in close contact with a number of parties, as has my Personal Envoy Jean Arnault,” he noted.

He also highlighted the involvement of international agencies working to address the maritime crisis. According to him, the International Maritime Organization is developing a framework to evacuate ships and seafarers trapped in the conflict zone.

In parallel, Jorge Moreira da Silva, who heads the UN Task Force for the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to visit the region to continue consultations aimed at establishing a possible humanitarian corridor, should the situation deteriorate further.

Outlining potential global economic scenarios, Guterres warned that even an immediate end to the war would not prevent short-term disruption. Supply chains, he said, would take months to recover, leading to reduced economic output and higher global prices.

Under such a scenario, global growth would decline from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent, while inflation, which had previously been easing, would rise from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent.

However, he cautioned that a prolonged conflict lasting until the end of the year could push the global economy into recession. In that worst-case scenario, inflation could surge beyond 6 percent, while economic growth could fall to 2 percent, triggering widespread instability.

“In such a situation, immense suffering would take hold, especially among the world’s most vulnerable populations,” he warned.

Guterres also emphasized that reopening the Strait alone would not be sufficient. He stressed the need to ensure that global shipping becomes “safe, predictable, and insurable” in order to restore stability to international trade and energy flows.