Japan’s Births, Fertility Rate At Record Lows In 2025.

Tokyo; June 2026: The number of babies born in Japan to Japanese nationals in 2025 fell to a record low of 671,236, while the country’s total fertility rate, which is the average number of children, woman is estimated to have in her lifetime, have also dropped to a new low, as per Japan government’s data published  yesterday (Wednesday – 03rd June 2026).

Births fell by 2.2%, or 14,937, from the previous year, and the fertility rate edged down 0.01%age point to 1.14, both declining for the 10th straight year. However, the rate slowed compared to recent trends, according to data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

The slower pace of decline in the number of new-borns may be attributable to the stable population of 25 years to 35 years old who were born around the 1990s, although urgent measures are necessary to put a halt to the country’s falling birth rate.

The number of marriages, a key factor influencing future birth trends, grew for the second consecutive year to 489,119, with the average age of men tying the knot at 31 years and 30 years for women, both down from the previous year. Japan’s struggle to encourage couples to have more children has been given greater urgency after data showed the annual number of births dropped to below 700,000 for the first time since records began more than a century ago.

Just 04 of the country’s 47 prefectures logged an increase in the number of babies born. Tokyo, Toyama and Ishikawa saw a growth for the first time in 10 years, while Kagawa was up for the first time in 04 years.

By prefecture, the fertility rates were the highest in Okinawa at 1.52, followed by 1.46 in Miyazaki and 1.45 in Fukui. It was the lowest in Tokyo at 0.96, followed by Hokkaido and Miyagi at 1.00.

Meanwhile, a total of 1,589,489 deaths were reported, down for the first time in five years, according to the data, likely due to factors such as a decline in deaths by COVID-19.

Deaths outnumbered births by 918,253, marking the 19th consecutive year of natural decline in the population.

The number of births plunged to around 686,000 in 2024, slipping below the 700,000 threshold for the first time since records began in 1899. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected in 2023 that the number of births in 2025 would hit around 749,000.

Japan’s birth rate has been falling since it reached the second baby boom in 1973, falling below 1 million in 2016 and below 800,000 in 2022. Last year’s figure is about one-quarter of the all-time peak of 2.7 million births in 1949. If current trends persists, Japan’s population of about 124 million is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, when 40% of the population will be 65 or over.

A shrinking and ageing population could have serious implications for the economy and national security, as the country seeks to boost its military to counter potential threats from China and North Korea.

Women in Japan are more likely than men to view the disproportionately heavy burden of housework and childcare placed on them as a major factor behind the country’s low birth rate, a survey by a private-sector advisory panel has found. The findings suggest that many women feel constrained by social norms, including unconscious gender bias, which remain deeply rooted, especially in rural areas, the panel said.

The panel, known as the Forum for the Future We Choose, brings together business and labour leaders, local government heads and researchers. One of its co-chairs, former internal affairs minister Hiroya Masuda, also led the expert group that warned in 2014 that about 900 municipalities in Japan could eventually disappear because of population decline.

The latest survey was conducted online in January and February this year, targeting about 22,000 people age 18 and older across Japan. Respondents were asked about 11 possible causes of the low birth rate and indicated their views by choosing one of the five responses — ‘strongly agree’, ‘agree’, ‘disagree’, ‘strongly disagree’, and ‘don’t know’.

On the economic burden of raising children, a large majority of both men and women said high child-rearing and education costs played a role in the decline of births. The share was 76.2% among men and 81.2% among women, combining those who answered “strongly agree” and “agree.”

The widest gender gap appeared in responses to the question of whether entrenched gender roles and marriage norms, such as the idea that men should work while women should stay at home, are contributing to the problem.

Among men, 53.0% said such norms were a factor, compared with 72.1% of women. The gap was even more pronounced among those who selected “strongly agree“: 11.9% of men versus 26.4% of women, showing the proportion among women at more than double that among men.

A more detailed analysis, including regional differences, has yet to be released. But Masuda named lingering social pressure in rural areas as a possible reason for outflows of women to Tokyo and other major cities.

“The suffocating pressure of old norms that still remains deeply rooted in rural areas may be causing women to move to Tokyo,” Masuda said. As a result, declines in the number of births and overall population may be accelerating, he added.

The government is increasingly focusing on the role of social norms and unconscious bias in the falling birth rate and migration to major cities.

In formulating its June 2025 basic policy on regional revitalization, the government surveyed people who had moved to urban areas about their perceptions of rural communities. Many responses pointed to entrenched gender expectations and limited opportunities for women.

Some respondents said rural areas were seen as places where “women are expected to play only supporting roles to men, and there are no jobs they truly want to do”. Others cited local customs in which women are expected to prepare food and drinks for men at community events. Some also described social pressure to marry and have children as ‘suffocating’.

The policy paper says conventional measures to counter population decline have failed to adequately address the concerns of the people most affected. It identifies as a central priority the need to “create communities chosen by young people and women”, including by fostering more comfortable and inclusive workplace environments.

Masuda said local governments also have an important role to play in encouraging change among local businesses. “Effort and ingenuity are needed to change outdated norms,” he said.

Team Maverick.