NCEP Has Predicted That Abrupt Change In Atmospheric Condition Would Become Stable From March.

Maryland, USA; February 2026: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).

La Niña continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.9⁰C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.4⁰C and 0.0⁰C, respectively.

The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 1800-1000W) significantly increased,

reflecting the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to sub seasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La Niña. Low level westerly wind anomalies were present over the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level

westerly wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with enhanced convection located off the equator (Fig. 5).

The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, favour the onset of ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026.

The team consensus also reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond, there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time of year tend to have lower accuracy.

In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026).

Team Maverick.