Afghanistan finding avenues in ceding its economic dependency on Pakistan.

Kabul’s attempt in finding new trade partners come after the worst outbreak of hostilities with Islamabad in years. The neighbours exchanged military attacks last month, killing dozens of people and leading to Pakistan closing its border with Afghanistan. The monthlong border closure has inflicted some $200 million in losses for Afghan traders, who rely on Pakistani seaports to access international markets.

But experts have warned that geography, high costs, and political constraints will hinder efforts by Afghanistan’s cash-strapped and unrecognised Taliban government to shift trade to Central Asia. Senior Taliban officials have urged Afghan traders and investors to end their activities in Pakistan and find new business and trade opportunities in Central Asia.

“We are actively working with our northern neighbors to find reliable trade alternatives”, Taliban Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi said on 12th November, 2025. In addition, Abdul Ghani Baradar, a Taliban deputy Prime Minister, accused Islamabad of using trade as a “tool of political pressure” and framed the ongoing border closure as evidence that Kabul must reduce its reliance on its eastern neighbour.

Meanwhile, Swiss-based Afghan expert Torek Farhadi said the Taliban’s new emphasis on trade with Central Asia is “largely political posturing”, adding that deep structural hurdles remain to expanding economic ties. The reason – Central Asia is landlocked, and Afghanistan must rely on long-distance overland corridors to reach markets. The region’s tariff structures impose high costs on many Afghan exports, especially agricultural goods. The logistics of handling, storing, and transporting perishable goods such as fruits and vegetables remain underdeveloped. To make the northern route commercially viable, Afghanistan would need to remove tariffs and offer incentives to its Central Asian partners, as asserted by Farhadi. But for the government in Kabul, customs revenue is one of their primary income sources.

Meanwhile, several railway projects, crucial for scaling cross-border trade, remain unfinished or lack financing. The Taliban’s lack of international recognition also prevents it from accessing funds from global institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, limiting investment in the infrastructure needed to support northbound trade, Farhadi said.

Those factors have ensured that Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia, although growing, has remained modest. Trade between Afghanistan and the five Central Asian states, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan has grown steadily, reaching nearly $1.7 billion, according to Afghan officials. Most of that volume consists of Afghan imports, including flour, fuel, cooking oil, and construction materials. Afghan exports to Central Asia remain limited but are slowly growing.

Kazakhstan has emerged as a major commercial partner for Afghanistan. In 2024, Astana and Kabul signed a road map that laid out a goal to increase bilateral trade to $3 billion in the coming years.

Uzbekistan remains one of Afghanistan’s most active commercial partners. Bilateral trade in 2024 reached $1.1 billion, according to official Uzbek figures. Tashkent and Kabul plan to increase bilateral trade to $2 billion in 2025.

Afghan exports via Turkmenistan’s Torghundi border crossing have more than doubled compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have officially inaugurated a key component of the CASA-1000 project designed to export electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Despite Afghanistan’s growing trade with Central Asia, Kabul remains dependent on Pakistan. The border crossings at Torkham and Chaman remain the backbone of Afghanistan’s commercial lifelines, but Islamabad has repeatedly closed the border in recent years, disrupting trade and the movement of people, causing Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan reclining from roughly $ 5 billion annually at its peak in 2011 to just over $ 1 billion in 2024. The most recent border closures on October 12th, following armed clashes between Pakistani and Taliban forces, has left thousands of trucks stranded for weeks.

But for Afghan traders, few alternatives can match Pakistan’s proximity or port infrastructure. Shifting trade away from those routes means higher transport costs, longer transit times, and increased logistical risks, experts say.

“The reality is that Afghanistan’s shortest and cheapest route to seaports as well as India and other South Asian markets is through Pakistan”, said Azarakhsh Hafizi, the former head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce.

“We need all transit routes to remain open. It would benefit not only Afghanistan and Pakistan, but it is also important for the regional economic integration”, added Hafizi, who previously held membership in the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Team Maverick