Suez Canal To Benefit From Hormuz Crisis.

May 2026: Soaring bunker costs have led to a spate of surcharges by carriers who are experiencing a fall in demand and diminishing returns from softening freight rates, a combination that may trigger a return to Suez Canal.

Shipping major CMA-CGM has announced the launch of its Ocean Rise Express (OCR) service, which Xeneta says has an average capacity of 9,334 teu, and began with the 8,488 teu CMA CGM Tosca which departed Shanghai on 06th February, called at Jeddah in the Red Sea and Veson’s Vessels Value AIS shows is now steaming north on the Suez Canal.

Consultant Linerlytica noted: “With bunker costs and charter rates remaining elevated, the cost savings as well as the lucrative Red Sea cargo opportunities could trigger some of its rivals to reconsider an earlier return to the Suez, setting the stage for a fresh rate war”. Other analysts are skeptical, pointing to the lack of future planning, while also expecting that CMA CGM’s Lebanon connections have afforded them some latitude with Iran and Yemen.

The OCR is one of a number of services that the French carrier operates via Suez, the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, without the Iran-backed Houthis intervening.

Xeneta’s senior analyst Destine Ozuygur noted: “We have to remember that from a purely political standpoint, CMA CGM is much more likely to be seen from a ‘friendly’ perspective by Iran and the Houthi’s. Some of that seems to be tied to both their business and humanitarian aid in Lebanon, and there are of course considerations like France denying airspace use to Israel’s military”.

This, however, did not stop Iran from firing on the CMA CGM Everglades in the Strait of Hormuz on 18th April this year. Xeneta point out that CMA CGM have in fact continued to offer Red Sea/Suez transits for much of the Middle East crisis. Ozuygur points the Asia – Europe Ocean Meds string, with an average 14,923 teu, which she says has been “conducting Suez transits since early 2024”.

According to Xeneta CMA CGM’s operations have “underpinned the Red Sea discussion for a long time”, highlighting the French carrier’s “more proactive approach compared to its peers”.

Ocean Meds transits of the Red Sea and Suez were never withdrawn even when other services, including FAL1, FAL3, and INDAMEX, were re-routed earlier this year.

In addition, CMA CGM’s MEX service to the Mediterranean from Asia, has been making inducement calls through Suez, four voyages since 29 March this year, but the carrier has yet to include these voyages on its schedules, even though future transits are already forecast.

The REX2 which serves Far East – Middle East, including the Red Sea, is significant in that it frequently transits the Bab-al-Mandeb strait, but does not continue to the Mediterranean via Suez, explained Ozuygur.

It remains uncertain whether other top ten carriers will return to the Suez route but Xeneta have tracked regional carriers filling in for Gulf Cooperation Council states delivering to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah.

“If some of the big five carriers do test the waters, we might see it on Far East – Middle East strings that are utilising Jeddah as the new GCC gateway”, added Ozuygur.

Dynamar’s Darron Wadey said: “Despite the fears, the Houthis have actually been very quiet. Houthi actions have been limited in number and effect and directed at Israel rather than shipping, this may well have induced CMA CGM to (quietly) undo a number of diversions”. Meanwhile, data from MDS Transmodal reflects the current situation with Red Sea capacity up 07% on February figures and flat when compared to the same period last year.

“Carriers may follow CMA CGM in a selective and tactical way, but the industry as a whole remains in a holding pattern”, said MDS Transmodal analyst Antonella Teodoro, adding that carrier schedules reflect future capacity offers, which “Provides a clearer view of structural intent, and that picture is more subdued than the operational data on actual ship movements”.

Team Maverick.