Rupee Expected To Improve Today After Yesterday’s Downfall.

Mumbai; February 2026: The Indian rupee is expected to improve at Friday’s open after patchy holiday flows and losses in the non-deliverable market drove it beyond the 91.00/dollar level. The 01 month non-deliverable forward (NDF) indicated that the rupee will open in the 91.02 to 91.06 range to the U.S. dollar, having settled at 90.6675 on Wednesday.

With Mumbai, the primary hub for rupee trading, was shut for a holiday on Thursday on the account of Chatrapati Maharaj Shivaji’s birthday, trading was confined to other domestic centres and offshore desks.

The local currency’s slide past the 91 mark was sizeable as it occurred in holiday-thinned trade, a setting in which big moves are relatively uncommon, bankers said. One banker has attributed to the sustained pressure on the rupee in the non-deliverable forwards, while highlighting that a large public sector bank was aggressively buying dollars. With liquidity far from optimal due to the Mumbai holiday, the flows had an outsized impact, exaggerating the move in the currency, bankers said. Moreover, Indian equities plunged on Thursday, oil prices climbed and the dollar extended its rally for the week, compounding the hit to the rupee.

The drop past 91 is significant considering that the Reserve Bank of India has, in recent sessions, have resisted a move past that level, with traders reporting intervention around 90.70–90.80. The question now is whether the move above 91 sustains or if the RBI steps in again. In light of the host of attritions for the rupee, the odds are the move sticks.

OIL, DOLLAR ADD PRESSURE:

The dollar on Friday is poised to yield its best weekly performance since October, buoyed by a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices rose after the U.S. President ramped up threats on Iran.

KEY INDICATORS:

• One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 91.18; onshore one-month forward premium at 13 paisa

• Dollar index at 97.98

• Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $71.8 per barrel (it was $51.80 before Trump embargoed India’s direct purchase from Russia)

• Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.07%

• As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $178.5 million worth of Indian shares on 18th February 2026.

• NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $39.3 million worth of Indian bonds on 18th February 2026.

Team Maverick.