TMC Dismisses Exit Polls Predicting BJP Edge, Cites Past Miscalculations

Kolkata, April 2026 : The Trinamool Congress on Wednesday rejected exit poll projections suggesting an advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the West Bengal Assembly elections, arguing that such surveys have historically failed to capture the state’s electoral verdict accurately.

Senior party leader and Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien questioned the credibility of exit polls, pointing to their track record during the 2021 Assembly elections. In a post on X, he highlighted how multiple agencies had significantly underestimated the Trinamool Congress’s eventual performance.

“Credibility of exit polls? Bengal polls 2021. How off the mark were the predictions from the final results,” O’Brien remarked, sharing comparative data to underscore the discrepancy.

According to him, several exit polls in 2021 had projected a tight contest, estimating the Trinamool Congress’s tally between 143 and 162 seats, while the BJP was predicted to secure between 115 and 147 seats. However, the actual results delivered a decisive mandate in favour of the ruling party, with the Trinamool Congress winning 215 seats and the BJP managing just 77.

Echoing similar sentiments, former Rajya Sabha MP Saket Gokhale said that exit polls in West Bengal often err on the side of caution by projecting close contests, whereas the state’s electoral outcomes tend to be emphatic.

“Exit polls generally play it safe by calling it a ‘close contest’ in Bengal. Except that mandates in Bengal are never ‘close’. They’re always decisive,” Gokhale stated, expressing confidence that the Trinamool Congress would return to power with a strong mandate when results are declared on May 4.

Despite the ruling party’s dismissal, most exit polls released after the conclusion of the two-phase elections indicate a tightly contested battle, with several suggesting a possible edge for the BJP.

The P-MARQ survey projects the BJP winning between 150 and 175 seats, while the Trinamool Congress is estimated to secure 118 to 138 seats. Similarly, the Matrize exit poll places the BJP’s tally between 146 and 161 seats, compared to 125 to 140 for the Trinamool Congress.

Another projection by Chanakya Strategies also indicates a BJP lead, estimating 150 to 160 seats for the party, while the Trinamool Congress is expected to win between 130 and 140 seats.

However, not all surveys align with this trend. The People’s Pulse exit poll presents a contrasting picture, forecasting a clear victory for the Trinamool Congress with 178 to 189 seats, while placing the BJP between 96 and 110 seats.

The mixed nature of these projections has added an element of uncertainty to the electoral outcome, with both major parties interpreting the data to support their respective claims.

While the BJP has projected the exit polls as indicative of a potential shift in power, the Trinamool Congress has maintained that such predictions do not reflect ground realities.

With counting scheduled for May 4, the final verdict will determine whether the exit polls accurately captured voter sentiment or once again fell short in assessing West Bengal’s complex political landscape.