US Intelligence Warns: China Poses Primary Threat to India’s Security

New Delhi: A recent US intelligence report has sounded a strong warning over China’s growing strategic ambitions, identifying it as India’s principal threat, while calling attention to the deepening alliance between China and Pakistan. The report highlights how India is reshaping its defense policies to counter Chinese expansionism, modernize its military capabilities, and strengthen its position on the global stage.

The report notes that under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, India is focusing on bolstering its global influence through strategic military partnerships, regional defense initiatives, and enhanced self-reliance in defense manufacturing. China’s assertive moves in Asia, especially its military ambitions in India’s neighborhood, are driving India’s security strategies.

China’s ‘String of Pearls’ Strategy Raises Alarm

According to the US intelligence assessment, China is planning to establish military bases in key countries bordering India — namely Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. This move is seen as part of China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, aimed at expanding its military and naval footprint across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). If realized, this could pose a serious strategic threat to India, given these nations’ proximity to India’s eastern and western borders.

China’s long-term goal, the report suggests, is to build a global military presence, particularly in regions critical to maritime trade and regional influence. For India, this means responding with urgency to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime interests.

India’s Response: Strengthening Defense Ties and Multilateral Engagements

Despite occasional skirmishes with Pakistan, including missile and drone exchanges following a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir in April 2024, India views China as the more enduring and complex threat. India is actively expanding bilateral and multilateral defense ties to counterbalance Chinese influence.

To this end, India is focusing on military exercises, arms sales, intelligence sharing, and joint training programs with strategic partners. India has intensified its role in regional and global alliances, such as the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia), BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and ASEAN. These engagements are part of India’s broader effort to shape a secure and rules-based Indo-Pacific.

The report also mentions the agreement between India and China in October 2024 to withdraw troops from two contentious zones along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. While this step lowered border tensions temporarily, the core issues of the LAC dispute remain unresolved. The memory of the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash continues to shape India’s cautious stance on China.

Pakistan’s Modernization and the China Nexus

The report raises serious concerns over Pakistan’s nuclear modernization efforts. It claims that Pakistan sees India as an existential threat and is rapidly upgrading its nuclear arsenal. Significantly, Pakistan’s defense and economic reliance on China is growing, with Beijing providing resources, technology, and infrastructure to boost Pakistan’s military capabilities.

This growing China-Pakistan alliance is seen as a dual threat to India. While China increases pressure along the LAC, Pakistan engages in cross-border hostilities and escalates tensions over Kashmir. The report notes that border skirmishes and terrorism-linked activities will remain a high priority for the Pakistani military in the coming year.

India has repeatedly raised its voice on international platforms regarding Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC). The intelligence report underscores that these actions remain a key driver of instability in the region.

Strategic Partnerships and Domestic Defense Push

Despite its growing focus on defense self-reliance, India will continue its ties with Russia for maintenance and operational support of its existing defense inventory. Although India has reduced its dependency on new military procurements from Russia, it still relies heavily on Russian spare parts for tanks, aircraft, and other defense platforms. This ongoing relationship is also viewed as a counterbalance to the China-Russia axis.

To reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, India is pushing forward with its ‘Made in India’ initiative in defense production. The goal is to strengthen domestic military manufacturing and secure critical supply chains. In 2024, India made notable strides in this area, including the successful test of the Agni-I Prime medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) and the Agni-V MIRV capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. India also commissioned its second nuclear-powered submarine, reinforcing its nuclear triad and deterrent capabilities.

India’s Strategic Outlook: Assertive Yet Calculated

The US intelligence report concludes that India’s security outlook for the near future will be shaped by a dual-front challenge — a militarily aggressive China and an unpredictable, nuclear-armed Pakistan. While India remains open to de-escalation and diplomacy, it is not letting down its guard.

In the face of mounting regional threats, India is steadily building a robust military posture, deepening international defense ties, and enhancing its role in shaping global security architecture. With its commitment to counter terrorism and ensure peace in the Indo-Pacific, India is poised to play a pivotal role in maintaining balance and stability in the region.

(The content of this article is sourced from a news agency and has not been edited by the Mavericknews30 team.)