Russia Is Using Oreshnik Strike To Deter Western States From Deploying Troops To Post War Ukraine.

Kyiv; January 2026: Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev, on January 10, vide his English-language X account, threatened that Russia could use Oreshnik missiles to strike European or NATO troops that deploy to post-war Ukraine as part of security guarantees. Earlier on 09th January Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee Chairperson Leonid Slutsky stated that Russian retaliation against future “blatant violations of red lines” is “inevitable”. Industry experts has recently assessed that the Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine, particularly the deployment of a multinational assurance force, as the Coalition of the Willing is currently discussing.

Meanwhile, United Kingdom (UK) is preparing for the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine as part of security guarantees in a future peace agreement. The UK government announced on January 09th, about the allocation of £200 million (about $268 million) to prepare British forces to deploy as part of a multinational force to post-war Ukraine. The funding will go toward upgrading vehicles, communication systems, counter-drone protections, and force-protection equipment. Russia has repeatedly stated that Western security guarantees would be “unacceptable” for Russia and that foreign troops would be “legitimate” targets for the Russian military.

In the meantime, Ukraine continues to collaborate with its Western partners to expand the production of the interceptor drones that are crucial to Ukraine’s ability to down Russian long-range drones on the front and in the rear. UK Defence Minister John Healey announced on 09th January that the UK will begin production of the Ukrainian-designed “Octopus” interceptor drones, which can intercept Russian Shahed-type drones, in January 2025.

Healey stated that the UK aims to make thousands of these Octopus drones per month for Ukraine and noted that the production cost of each Octopus drone is less than 10% of the cost of the Russian Shahed-type drone. Healey stated that the UK will update the design every 06 weeks in order to stay ahead of Russian technological adaptations. Russian forces have been increasingly adapting and modifying their Shahed-type drones, including by adding integrated cameras and radio control capabilities that have allowed Russian forces to strike moving targets such as locomotives and by equipping Shaheds with thermobaric warheads and man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS).

Ukrainian and Russian forces have been engaged in an offense-defence race to develop new technologies throughout the full-scale invasion, as Russian forces have escalated their long-range strike campaign and Ukrainian forces have responded by innovating new air defence countermeasures. Russia’s continued efforts to degrade Ukrainian air defences through constant innovation and adaptation underscore the need for a flexible, well-rounded, and well-provisioned Ukrainian air defence umbrella, including an arsenal of interceptor drones. Ukraine’s ability to field technological adaptations at scale ahead of Russian adaptations is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to offset Russia’s quantitative materiel advantages.

Furthermore, Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program is vital not only for Ukraine’s defence against Russian strikes against the frontline and the rear but also for the defence of Europe. The Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure overnight on January 09th and 10th. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Zhutovskaya oil depot in Oktyabrsky Raion, Volgograd Oblast, which supplies fuel to Russian forces. Geolocated images published on 10th January shows a fire in Oktyabrsky, and NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data shows heat anomalies in Oktyabrsky. Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian drone strike on the oblast and that drone debris caused a fire at an oil depot in Oktyabrsky Raion.

On the otherside, Russian forces attacked in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, including north of Sumy City toward Mala Korchakivka, northeast of Sumy City toward Myropillya, and southeast of Sumy City near Hrabovske, on January 09th and 10th.

As per sources of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on January 10th that the commander of the 1st Motorised Rifle Regiment (reportedly responsible for territorial control tasks) (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and reportedly under the operational control of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces) plans to send the regiment’s 07th and 08th companies to a highly dangerous 3.5 kilometre forested area with interspersed Russian and Ukrainian positions along the international border after previous Russian units were unable to seize the area after several months of intense fighting.

The sources stated that the Russian servicemembers on the ground in this area are in complete disarray without food or water. The sources have further claimed that the 05th and 06th companies of the 1st Motorised Rifle Regiment will replace the 07th and 08th companies’ current positions.

Elements of the Russian 34th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue to operate in and around Hrabovske. Elements of the 810th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) are reportedly operating in Andriivka (north of Sumy City).

Meanwhile, Elements of the 30th Motorised Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorised Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly attacking toward Mala Korchakivka. First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 1427th Motorised Rifle Regiment (6th CAA, LMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Sumy Oblast.

Team Maverick.