Exit Polls Indicate UDF Comeback in Kerala After a Decade

Thiruvananthapuram, April 2026 : A majority of exit polls released on Wednesday suggest that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to return to power in Kerala after spending ten years in the opposition. If these projections hold true, it would mark the end of the decade-long rule of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Across multiple surveys, the UDF is projected to cross the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The projections indicate a consistent trend of advantage for the opposition alliance, pointing towards a possible shift in the state’s political landscape.

According to the CNN–News18 exit poll, the UDF is likely to secure between 70 and 80 seats, placing it within striking distance of a clear majority. Meanwhile, People’s Pulse forecasts an even stronger performance, estimating the UDF’s tally between 75 and 85 seats. Other polling agencies, including PMARQ and Matrize, also indicate a steady UDF lead, reinforcing the overall trend seen across exit polls.

Detailed seat projections further underline this advantage. CNN–News18 estimates the LDF to secure 58–68 seats, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win between 0 and 4 seats. PMARQ places the UDF between 71 and 79 seats, the LDF between 62 and 69, and the NDA between 1 and 4. Similarly, Matrize projects 70–75 seats for the UDF, 60–65 for the LDF, and 3–5 for the NDA. People’s Pulse estimates the LDF at 55–65 seats and the NDA at 0–3 seats.

Vote share projections also point to a clear edge for the UDF. According to Axis My India, the UDF is expected to secure around 44 percent of the vote, compared to 39 percent for the LDF. The NDA is projected to garner approximately 14 percent, while other parties may account for around 3 percent. Surveys by Times Now-JVC, CNN Vote Vibe, and PMARQ similarly indicate a UDF lead of roughly five percentage points, suggesting a decisive swing in voter preference.

The ruling LDF, which held 99 seats in the outgoing Assembly, had earlier expressed confidence that its governance record and welfare initiatives would ensure its return to power, even suggesting that a narrow majority would suffice. However, the UDF has maintained that strong anti-incumbency sentiment and a united campaign have translated into a clear mandate. Some leaders have even claimed that the alliance could exceed 85 seats and approach the 90-mark if the trend strengthens.

The NDA, despite not being projected to make major gains, remains optimistic about improving its presence, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.

It is worth noting that exit polls in the 2021 Assembly elections had largely predicted an LDF victory, which eventually proved accurate. This lends both credibility and caution to the current projections.

With robust voter turnout recorded during polling on April 9, Kerala now awaits the final verdict. All eyes are on the counting day, which will determine whether the projected return of the UDF becomes a political reality or if the LDF manages to retain power against the odds.

(The content of this article is sourced from a news agency and has not been edited by the Mavericknews30 team.)