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DMK Alliance Set for Return as Exit Polls Indicate Clear Edge in Tamil Nadu

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Chennai, April 2026 : Exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections point to a decisive advantage for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, suggesting that Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is likely to secure a second consecutive term in office. The projections, released after polling concluded, indicate a consistent trend across agencies favouring the ruling coalition.

Voting for the 234-member Assembly was held in a single phase on April 23, witnessing a robust voter turnout of 85.10 per cent. The high participation reflected strong public engagement in what was widely seen as a multi-cornered contest involving the DMK-led alliance, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led front, actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK).

According to the People’s Pulse exit poll, the DMK alliance is projected to win between 125 and 145 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118. The AIADMK-led alliance is expected to secure between 65 and 80 seats, while TVK could emerge as a notable new player with an estimated 18 to 24 seats. Other parties and independents are likely to win a small number of constituencies.

Similar projections have been echoed by other polling agencies. Axis My India has also predicted a strong showing for the DMK alliance in the range of 125–145 seats, with the AIADMK alliance trailing significantly. The Matrix poll estimates a slightly narrower margin but still places the DMK alliance ahead with 122–132 seats, while the AIADMK alliance could secure between 87 and 110 seats.

The P-Marq exit poll aligns closely with these trends, forecasting 125–145 seats for the DMK alliance and 65–85 seats for the AIADMK alliance. It also suggests that TVK may secure between 16 and 26 seats, indicating a significant debut performance that could influence future political dynamics in the state.

Despite minor variations in seat projections, the overall picture emerging from the exit polls remains consistent: a clear lead for the DMK-led alliance. The AIADMK alliance appears to be trailing, while the entry of TVK has added a fresh dimension to Tamil Nadu politics by attracting a share of votes across traditional party bases.

With counting scheduled for May 4, all eyes are now on the final results to determine whether these projections translate into an actual mandate. If the trends hold, Tamil Nadu could witness political continuity under Stalin’s leadership, reinforcing the DMK’s position in the state’s evolving electoral landscape.

Agency Name	DMK Alliance (Seats)	AIADMK Alliance (Seats)	TVK (Seats)	Others (Seats)
People’s Pulse	125 – 145	65 – 80	18 – 24	2 – 6
Axis My India	125 – 145	65 – 80	18 – 24	2 – 6
Matrix Poll	122 – 132	87 – 110	10 – 12	Up to 6
P-Marq	125 – 145	65 – 85	16 – 26	1 – 6

Summary Insight:

All agencies show a clear lead for the DMK alliance.
The AIADMK alliance trails in most projections.
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is emerging as a significant new player.
Minor variations exist, but the overall trend strongly favors the ruling alliance.