IMD Flags Weak 2026 Monsoon Outlook, Warns of Below-Normal Rainfall Across India

New Delhi, May 2026 : The India Meteorological Department (India Meteorological Department) has released its updated long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, indicating a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the country during the June–September season.

According to the seasonal outlook, total rainfall is expected to be around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model uncertainty range of plus-minus 4 per cent. The IMD has categorised this projection as below normal, raising concerns over its potential impact on agriculture, water resources, and the broader economy.

The forecast suggests that 2026 could turn out to be one of the weaker monsoon years in recent times if current atmospheric and oceanic conditions persist.

The monsoon core zone, which includes large rain-fed agricultural regions that are crucial for India’s food production system, is also expected to receive below-normal rainfall. This raises concerns for kharif crop sowing and overall rural economic stability.

Region-wise projections show a mixed pattern. While Northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, large parts of Northwest India, Central India, and South Peninsular India are expected to experience deficient rainfall. However, isolated pockets in Northwest and Northeast India, parts of eastern South Peninsular India, and scattered areas in East India may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

For June 2026 alone, the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall over most parts of the country. The early onset period of the monsoon is therefore expected to remain weak, potentially affecting sowing operations in several states.

In addition to rainfall concerns, the IMD has also warned of above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across large parts of the country during June. Several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to experience more heatwave days than usual. However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand may witness fewer heatwave days compared to normal trends.

The forecast is being influenced by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern known to suppress monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and is expected to remain so throughout the monsoon season, offering no compensatory support to rainfall activity.

IMD officials have assigned an 84 per cent probability to the below-normal rainfall scenario, making this one of the more significant early-season warnings in recent years. Experts note that such projections, if realised, could have widespread implications for food inflation, agricultural output, and rural livelihoods.

A weak monsoon could also strain water storage systems, reduce groundwater recharge, and negatively impact hydroelectric power generation. Drinking water availability in several regions may also come under pressure, particularly during peak summer months and delayed rainfall phases.

The IMD is expected to release a more detailed monthly forecast for July towards the end of June, which will provide a clearer picture of monsoon progression.

Meanwhile, the advisory urges state governments and farmers to prepare contingency strategies, including efficient water management practices, adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, and enhanced water conservation measures to mitigate potential risks arising from a deficient monsoon season.

(The content of this article is sourced from a news agency and has not been edited by the Mavericknews30 team.)