Europe Rejuvenates Its Energy Autonomy Conundrum Largely From Iran War.

Brussels; March 2026: The rapidly escalating conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, raising concerns in European Union capital’s about higher energy prices, economic instability, and the potential strengthening of Russia’s war capabilities in Ukraine. The crisis intensified after US and Israeli strikes in Iran triggered widespread retaliation by Tehran, including attacks across the Gulf region and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and a significant share of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Disruptions there have already rattled markets, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and driving European gas prices sharply higher.

In a bid to mitigate the effects of the crisis European officials say the continent is better prepared than during the 2022 energy crisis, having reduced reliance on Russian fossil fuels and diversified its energy imports. However, policymakers acknowledge that Europe remains vulnerable to global price shocks.

Yvan Verougstraete, a Belgian member of the European Parliament (MEP) and vice-chair of the Industry, Research and Energy Committee, said the crisis highlights the continuing geopolitical risks tied to fossil fuel dependence. “In the short term, Europe is inevitably exposed”, Verougstraete told reporters. “As long as we remain heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, we will continue to be exposed to geopolitical shocks. Europe’s next major challenge is energy autonomy”.

While commenting on the looming crisis, German MEP Michael Bloss warned that recent price increases show how vulnerable Europe remains to geopolitical disruptions tied to fossil fuel supply routes. “The Commission saying the impact is ‘limited’ is a dangerous understatement. We’re seeing price spikes that hit consumers and industry hard, and every week of instability around the Strait of Hormuz reminds us how exposed Europe still is to fossil fuel dependency”. he said. The German MEP further noted that Europe has short-term buffers, including strategic reserves and diversified suppliers, but stressed that these measures only provide temporary relief.

“Europe cannot keep gambling its economic stability on geopolitical corridors it doesn’t control”, Bloss warned. He said the latest tensions once again demonstrate the geopolitical risks tied to fossil fuel dependence and highlight the need to deepen the EU’s long-term energy transition. “The lesson is always the same, and we keep refusing to learn it: as long as Europe runs on fossil fuels, our security is in someone else’s hands”.

Kong Chyong, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said Europe’s main vulnerability today is “increasingly price instability rather than physical shortages”. During the 2021-2023 energy crisis, supply systems largely held up but required extremely high gas and electricity prices to balance the market. Those prices forced demand reductions in industry and required significant government subsidies to protect households and businesses.

“Even if supply volumes remain adequate, Europe can still experience significant economic stress through energy prices. In the longer term, resilience depends on reducing exposure to these compound shocks rather than focusing only on preventing physical shortages”, Chyong explained. Looking ahead, he said one of the key lessons is that energy security and price resilience should be treated as separate policy objectives. “Europe may maintain physical supply and still face severe economic stress through wholesale energy prices”, he said, noting that long-term policy should focus on reducing exposure to combinations of shocks.

To strengthen long-term resilience, he added, Europe should diversify energy procurement, expand system flexibility, improve storage and grid infrastructure, and gradually reduce structural dependence on fossil fuels during peak demand periods.

Europe should brace for more volatility and higher energy prices as the Middle East crisis escalates, warned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “Mounting supply concerns have driven Brent crude oil futures to surge more than 15% to above $100 per barrel, and European natural gas futures climbed more than 20%”, she told reporters.

She added that LNG buyers in both Europe and Asia are now facing higher prices as they compete for available cargoes. “The longer the conflict takes to be resolved, the more implications for Europe’s security of supply”, she said. Replacing LNG from Gulf suppliers could prove difficult, she said, as many alternative exporters are already operating near capacity.

Small additional volumes may come from countries including Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, the Republic of Congo, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, and the US Virgin Islands, but the increases would likely be limited. “Russia’s war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East have shown that depending on both pipeline gas and LNG imports threatens Europe’s energy security. The only durable solution is structural: Europe must reduce gas demand and imports by scaling renewables and energy efficiency”, Ana Maria said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is open to resume long-term energy cooperation with European buyers if it is free from political conditions, adding that they had “never refused” to work with European companies and would welcome renewed cooperation. Energy relations between Russia and the EU largely collapsed after the war started in Ukraine, as the bloc pushed to reduce dependence on Russian energy through the REPowerEU plan. Within the bloc, Hungary and Slovakia remain the main supporters of continuing imports of cheaper Russian energy.

Amid a recent rise in energy prices, and signals from Washington that some restrictions on Russian energy might be relaxed, questions are arising about whether Europe might reassess its current approach. “Returning to Russian gas or oil would be a major strategic mistake”, Verougstraete stressed, adding that Europe’s reliance on Russian energy had already proven to be a significant geopolitical vulnerability. “The response to one crisis cannot be to recreate the dependency that already put us at risk”, he said. Instead, he argued that the EU must continue diversifying supply sources while accelerating domestic energy production.

Similarly, German MEP Michael Bloss also rejected the idea: “Going back to Russian energy would mean financing Putin’s war machine and rewarding exactly the kind of geopolitical blackmail we set out to end”. Instead of reopening that channel, Bloss said the EU should activate coordinated measures to stabilise markets and reduce consumption, while also focusing on scaling up domestic clean energy production.

Verougstraete also warned that sustained price increases could indirectly benefit Russia. “Its economy still relies heavily on hydrocarbon exports. The higher global prices go, the higher the Kremlin’s energy revenues become, and that can indirectly support Russia’s war effort”.

Meanwhile, as we were discussing on the Europe’s Energy Autonomy, Russian energy company Gazprom disclosed today that over the past two weeks, 12 attacks on its facilities that ensure export supplies via the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines towards Türkiye have been repelled.

In a statement on Telegram, Gazprom said the Russkaya pumping station in southern Russia was again attacked via air, and the day before, attacks on the Beregovaya and the Kazachya stations were registered. “In total, over the past two weeks, starting February 24th, Gazprom facilities in southern Russia have been attacked 12 times. These facilities are part of the critically important energy infrastructure and ensure the reliability of export gas supplies via the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines”, it said.

In a separate statement, the Defense Ministry confirmed the strikes, saying the goal was to halt gas supplies to European consumers. On January 27th, Ukraine stopped deliveries of energy resources via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia. In response, Budapest blocked a 90 million euro credit to Ukraine. Currently, Hungary continues to receive Russian gas via TurkStream and deliver it to Slovakia. The incident comes amid Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major waterway that transports 20% of global oil from the Persian Gulf, for the past 10 days due to US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Suvro Sanyal – Team Maverick.