Nationalist Nawrocki Edges Out Pro-European Opponent in Tight Polish Presidential Race

Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s presidential election Monday, marking a setback for the centrist government’s pro-European agenda. According to election commission data, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote. His victory, celebrated by European conservatives inspired by US President Donald Trump, further entrenches Poland’s political stalemate by giving the presidency to a figure likely to veto liberal reforms advanced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Over the past 18 months, Tusk’s administration has sought to reverse judicial changes enacted by the former Law and Justice (PiS) government, which fell from power last year. PiS-allied President Andrzej Duda, however, blocked these reversals. Observers expect Nawrocki to continue that pattern, using his veto to thwart Tusk’s reform efforts.

Judicial overhauls under PiS had already strained relations with Brussels. The European Court of Justice ruled that Poland’s new judge-appointment procedure failed to ensure impartiality, casting doubt on legal decisions made under the system. In turn, Poland’s constitutional tribunal challenged EU law primacy, prompting Brussels to sue Warsaw.

Nawrocki’s opponent, Rafal Trzaskowski of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), conceded shortly after an exit poll late Sunday projected a tight outcome. “I regret that I could not convince a majority of citizens of my vision for Poland,” Trzaskowski posted on X (formerly Twitter). Nawrocki, a conservative historian and amateur boxer backed by PiS, framed the election as a referendum on Tusk’s 18-month-old government. “The referendum on dismissing the Tusk government has been won,” PiS MP Jacek Sasin declared on X.

Nawrocki’s triumph underscores persistent divisions in Poland over judicial independence and the country’s relationship with the EU. Analysts predict his presidency will challenge Tusk’s efforts to realign Poland more closely with European norms, perpetuating political gridlock.