Is China contemplating its rare earth data?

Aug 2025 : China, which dominates the global supply chain for rare earth elements, has previously used export controls as leverage in negotiations with the United States. The country’s tight control over rare earth supplies was reportedly a factor in Washington’s decision to slightly loosen its restrictions over the export of advanced chips to China. With rare earths crucial to the production of a slew of hi-tech products, from electric vehicles to advanced weaponry, Beijing has long imposed strict top-down control over the sector, and it has further tightened its supervision in recent years.

As a fact of national integrity, China decided to stop publishing details of its rare earth mining and refining quotas, in a break from normal practice that has flagged a deep concern for the United States along with other countries, and had raised the temperature in the US-China trade war. Analysts says, the delay in publishing the information could be a deliberate strategy, with rare earths widely seen as a key source of leverage for Beijing as it continues negotiations with Washington over a deal to end the tariff war.

Chinese authorities usually release details of its annual mining and refining quotas, which companies around the world rely on for their strategic planning at several points throughout the year. Beijing has already issued a first batch of quotas for this year to two rare earth producers, China Rare Earth Group and China Northern Rare Earth, although the quota amounts remain unclear, also the authorities did not publicly announce the move and key details about the quotas remain unknown, Chinese media reported on Friday. It has further added that China may “no longer disclose specific quota amounts for rare earth mining and refining in the future”, given the rising strategic importance of the industry.

“Quotas once balanced supply at home and conveyed intentions abroad; now they are a tool of power politics”, said Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, a Hong Kong-based geopolitical analyst. “The missing figure unsettles planning in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo, where industries rely on Chinese processing and export licenses”.

Western buyers have been moving to boost their rare earth inventories in recent weeks, China Post Securities said in a research note on Monday, after a slowdown in shipments from China sparked alarm in the US and Europe earlier this summer. China, on its part, has urged foreign companies not to stockpile rare earth materials and derivative products like magnets. Beijing’s efforts to prevent companies from building up large rare earth inventories, which would give it “more flexibility to respond to shortages and price fluctuations”, showed China’s “determination to maintain maximum leverage in the sector”, as quoted by industry experts.

Last year, China issued two batches of quotas, with the final one coming on August 20. In 2023, three batches were released in March, September and December, respectively.

The failure (as viewed by the unfriendly countries) to disclose information about the quotas comes as China and the US remain locked in a stand-off over a string of trade and technology issues, with the two sides yet to agree a long-term deal to roll back tariffs.

China began imposing production limits on local governments in 2006 to curb excessive mining. A decade later, the system was tightened, with quotas allocated directly by the central government to state-owned rare earth companies, typically in two rounds per year. Last year, the government approved a combined 270,000 tons of mining quotas, up 6 per cent from 2023 – a marked slowdown from the previous year’s 21 per cent increase, according to official data.

Meanwhile, its refining and separation quotas rose 4% year on year in 2024 to reach 254,000 tons, also a sharp drop from the previous year’s 21% uptick. Beijing has also stepped up a crackdown on rare earth smuggling since May, after adding seven critical minerals to its export control list in retaliation against US tariffs. In July, it announced that “a number of suspects” had been arrested for trafficking critical minerals.

Team Maverick