One Year of Sharia Rule in Syria: Türkiye-Israel Tensions and the US.

Ankara; December 2025: The civil war in Syria, which began in 2011, left an estimated 650,000 dead and a devastated Syria, culminating in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s Baath regime in early December 2024.

The Syrian civil war ushered in the emergence of a new generation of brutal jihadist terrorist entity like ISIS. Turkey, in addition to the increasing terrorist attacks stemming from the PKK and ISIS, has also become a target for an influx of millions of Syrian refugees. The SDF, established by the US military to combat ISIS, the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the PYD/YPG, continues to plague Türkiye today. Syria has been struggling to recover for a year under the leadership of Ahmed al-Shara, with Türkiye supporting it and Israel obstructing it.

The trajectory in the first year of the new regime in Syria.

Exit of Assad; Arrival of Sharia –

• December 8, 2024: Rebels led by HTS captured Damascus, overthrowing the Baath regime; Ahmed al-Shara, known by his organisation name Mohammed al-Golani, seized power. Deposed President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, his biggest supporter. An interim government was established. Israel entered Syrian territory to establish a buffer zone around the occupied Golan Heights and launched airstrikes.

• December 12, 2024: MIT Director İbrahim Kalın travelled to Damascus and met with Golani. This was the first foreign visit for the new administration. On December 14, the Turkish Embassy in Damascus, which had been closed in 2012, reopened.

• December 22, 2024: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan travelled to Damascus. These visits were cited as examples of Turkey’s influence on regime change in Syria.

• January 29, 2025: At the Syrian Revolution Victory Conference, Ahmed al-Shara was officially appointed transitional president; the disbandment of HTS was declared.

• February 4, 2025: Shara, who made her first visit to Saudi Arabia, made her second visit to Ankara, where she met with President Tayyip Erdoğan. Security, trade, and the return of Syrian refugees were discussed, and the return of refugees has begun.

Kurds, Alevis, Druze –

• March 6, 2025: Clashes broke out between Alawite militias pro-Bashar al-Assad’s regime after jihadist forces attacked Alawite neighbourhoods in Latakia and Tartus. Approximately 800 people were reportedly killed in the clashes, which were suppressed by government forces.

• March 10, 2025: An agreement was signed between interim President Shara and SDF leader Mazlum Abdi (Ferhat Abdi Şahin) regarding the transfer of strategic facilities and armed forces under SDF control in north eastern Syria to Damascus control.

• March 13, 2025: The Interim Constitutional Declaration was published; a presidential system was established for a 5-year transitional period. Shara signed an agreement with representatives of the Druze uprising in Sweida in the south, on the Israeli border.

• March 29, 2025: A new transitional government was announced ; a cabinet was formed that included one member each from the Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Kurdish minorities having symbolical no key role.

• May 14, 2025: Shara met with US President Donald Trump in Riyadh, hosted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. President Erdoğan also attended the meeting via teleconference. As a result, HTS was removed from the US terrorist organisation list, and the US partially lifted sanctions.

Israeli Sabotages –

• May 21, 2025: Trump appointed Tom Barrack, whom he had appointed as Ambassador to Ankara a few days earlier, as his Special Representative for Syria. This made it clear that the US viewed the developments in Syria within the context of Turkey and the region.
• May 29, 2025: Barrack’s first action was to sign $7 billion worth of energy and infrastructure deals in Syria. Turkish companies Cengiz and Kalyon are participating in the consortium, a partnership between the US, Turkey, and Qatar.

• June 13, 2025: Israel attacked Iran. In the reciprocal attacks that lasted 11 days and took place partly in Syrian airspace, Israel continued to strike Syria’s remaining defence facilities.

• July 13, 2025: The renewed Druze uprising flared up with Israeli support. Government forces intervened in the uprising, which began as a Druze-Bedouin clash. Israel struck the Ministry of Defence in Damascus to show its support for the Druze and began encouraging the SDF.

Türkiye-Syria-USA –

• September 23, 2025: Shara became the first Syrian leader to address the UN General Assembly. This development was considered a comeback for Syria, which had long been isolated from the international community.

• October 15 , 2025: Shara met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Russia’s protection of its military bases in Syria was reportedly also discussed.

• November 10, 2025: Shara met with Trump at the White House. Trump also invited Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to part of the meeting . Following the Trump-Erdogan meeting at the White House on September 25, the US thus emphasized its intention to take Turkey into account in Syrian affairs.

• December 6, 2025: Speaking at the Doha Forum, Shara announced that Israel had conducted more than 1,000 air strikes and approximately 400 ground strikes on Syria since they came to power in December 2024. The UN condemned the Israeli attacks as “violations of sovereignty”.

Team Maverick.