Polls In Brazil Exhibits Flávio Bolsonaro Drawing Level With Lula In A Potential Brazil Presidential Runoff.

Reo Di Janeiro; February 2026: Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are virtually tied in a simulated second round of vote for October’s election, according to an Atlas Intel survey, which is the first poll to show the pair at parity in a head-to-head scenario.

The poll places Flávio Bolsonaro on 46.3% versus Lula on 46.2% in a potential runoff, a gap well within the margin of error. Atlas Intel surveyed 4,986 people from February 19th to February 24th and reported a 01 percentage point margin of error.

In the simulated first round, Lula still leads Flávio Bolsonaro, though the distance narrows compared with earlier measurements. The survey also points to high levels of rejection for both candidates, a dynamic that can limit late-stage growth in a polarized race and make the contest hinge on a relatively small pool of swing voters.

Flávio Bolsonaro hailed the results on social media, framing the contest as the start of a push to “Rescue Brazil”, according to remarks carried by the press. The senator is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains sidelined from a direct presidential run amid ongoing legal proceedings, according to international reporting cited alongside the poll coverage.

The Bolsonaro name’s rise comes as Lula has kept an active international schedule in recent months, seeking trade and diplomatic partnerships. Domestically, the president faces scrutiny tied to a congressional investigation into alleged fraud in Brazil’s pension system. Press reports say a legislative commission approved steps to review bank and tax records linked to one of Lula’s sons as part of that inquiry.

Brazil will hold presidential, congressional and governors’ elections in October 2026. Under Brazil’s electoral rules, if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two advance to a runoff, an outcome that has been common in recent cycles.

As reported earlier, Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has used an international tour in the Middle East to publicly cast himself as a contender for Brazil’s 2026 presidency, seeking visibility among transnational conservative networks as Brazil’s right tries to settle on a standard-bearer.

In Jerusalem, Bolsonaro delivered a direct opening line in English: “I speak here today not only as a senator but as a candidate for the presidency of Brazil”, he said. The trip included events and meetings in Israel, followed by stops in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Local reporting framed the itinerary as part of a broader effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s international credentials and rally support among ideological allies abroad.

At home, signs of reshuffling on the right have grown more pronounced. In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral prize influential figures have described as “a closed chapter” the possibility that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will run for president, a message that effectively clears space for the Bolsonaro brand to remain central to the opposition’s strategy.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s move comes as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues to lead early polling and works to hold together a governing coalition, with public security, the economy and entrenched political polarization still dominating the national agenda. Commentators cited in Brazilian outlets note that, with formal nominations still months away, the right faces a two-track challenge: consolidating the core Bolsonaro base while reaching more moderate voters without blunting its message.

Bolsonaro has portrayed his overseas appearances as part of a plan to “rebuild” alliances and reaffirm political affinities. Critics, however, argue he is turning foreign policy into campaign theatre and exporting Brazil’s domestic confrontation. For now, the race remains in its early phase, but the battle lines are beginning to form both in Brasília and beyond Brazil’s borders.

Team Maverick.