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Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Record Voter Turnout Points to Strong NDA Surge as Mahagathbandhan Struggles

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New Delhi, Nov 2025 : The Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, which witnessed an impressive voter turnout across both phases on November 6 and 11, appear poised to deliver a decisive mandate in favour of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to a wide range of exit polls released on Tuesday, the ruling coalition is expected to sail past the halfway mark of 122 seats with ease, while the RJD–Congress-led Mahagathbandhan may face a significant electoral setback in this high-stakes contest.

This year’s elections recorded bumper voting, a trend that usually indicates a strong desire for change or a reaffirmation of the existing political leadership. However, as various agencies unveiled their exit poll projections, a clear pattern emerged—most surveyors foresee a comfortable and possibly commanding victory for the NDA, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan appears to be struggling to cross the 100-seat threshold.

What makes these elections particularly interesting is the presence of a new entrant—Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj—which presented itself as a third alternative. Despite extensive campaigning and considerable media attention, the exit polls suggest that Jan Suraaj may fail to leave any significant electoral footprint, with many agencies predicting zero or minimal seats for the party.

Across the board, seven major polling agencies forecast an NDA sweep. Three of them even place the alliance’s upper limit beyond the 160-seat mark, signaling a potentially dominant performance reminiscent of previous strong mandates in the state. Conversely, most estimates put the Mahagathbandhan in the double-digit range, with only a few agencies allowing for the possibility of crossing 100 seats.

Smaller parties—including AIMIM, Jan Suraaj, and select independent candidates—are projected to remain on the margins. Collectively, these groups may secure between 2 and 8 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, insufficient to influence government formation.

Among the most detailed exit poll projections is the survey by Chanakya Strategies, which gives the NDA 130–138 seats, while projecting 100–108 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. Others are expected to claim 3–5 seats, but Jan Suraaj is predicted to draw a blank.

Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll paints an even more challenging picture for the Mahagathbandhan, projecting 73–91 seats, while placing the NDA comfortably ahead with 145–160 seats. It also estimates 5–7 seats for other players.

According to Polstrat, the NDA is expected to secure 133–148 seats with a vote share of 44.71%, while the Mahagathbandhan may bag 87–102 seats with 40.34% of the votes.

DV Research predicts 137–152 seats for the NDA and 83–98 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, with minor players accounting for 1–8 seats.

Exit polls released by JVC and People’s Insight show strikingly similar patterns. JVC forecasts 135–150 seats for the NDA and 88–103 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. People’s Insight places the NDA at 133–148 seats and the Mahagathbandhan at 87–102 seats, while assigning 3–6 seats to other parties.

The IANS-Matrize exit poll is among the most optimistic for the NDA, projecting 147–167 seats, leaving the Mahagathbandhan with a steep drop to 70–90 seats.

Similarly, P-Marq places the NDA at 142–162 seats, while giving the Mahagathbandhan 80–98 seats. Peoples Pulse forecasts 133–159 seats for the NDA and 75–101 seats for the opposition alliance. Both agencies give 1–5 seats to Jan Suraaj, indicating only scattered pockets of support for the new political outfit.

Overall, the exit polls indicate a clear trend—the BJP-led NDA looks set for a strong comeback, while the Mahagathbandhan appears to be losing ground. With voter turnout at its highest in recent years, all eyes are now on the final results, which will ultimately decide whether the exit polls have captured the true mood of Bihar’s electorate.

Bihar Exit Polls 2025 – Comparison Table

Polling Agency	NDA Seats (Range)	MGB Seats (Range)	Others (Range)	Notes
Chanakya Strategies	130–138	100–108	3–5	Jan Suraaj: 0
Dainik Bhaskar	145–160	73–91	5–7	MGB lowest projection
Polstrat	133–148	87–102	–	Vote share NDA: 44.71%, MGB: 40.34%
DV Research	137–152	83–98	1–8	–
JVC	135–150	88–103	3–6	Similar to People’s Insight
People’s Insight	133–148	87–102	3–6	–
IANS–Matrize	147–167	70–90	–	NDA highest projection
P-Marq	142–162	80–98	–	–
Peoples Pulse	133–159	75–101	1–5	Jan Suraaj: 1–5 seats