Analysis: Possible Causes of the Indian Tejas Fighter Jet Crash at Dubai Airshow 2025.

An Indian Air Force Tejas fighter went down during a low altitude demonstration at the Dubai Air Show on Thursday, according to air show officials and Indian defence representatives present at the scene. The aircraft appeared to lose control shortly after entering a high-energy manoeuvre, and preliminary comments from technical teams suggest that a stall, a sudden power interruption, or a fault in the digital fly-by-wire flight control system might have triggered the fatal sequence. Investigators from India and the United Arab Emirates are now working jointly to recover data from the jet’s mission computer and engine monitoring system, which could clarify what caused the loss of control during a manoeuvre that typically demands precise energy management.

The Indian Air Force Tejas fighter jet crash poses a significant challenge for the program, raising operational concerns and casting doubt on India’s ongoing efforts to position the aircraft in international markets.

The HAL Tejas is India’s first fully indigenous multirole fighter jet, developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) under the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) program. Designed to replace the Indian Air Force’s aging MiG-21 fleet, the Tejas represents a critical component of India’s long-term defence-industrial strategy and its ambition to reduce reliance on imported fighter platforms. The aircraft features a tailless delta wing configuration, a digital fly-by-wire flight control system, and is powered by a single General Electric F404 engine. It is engineered for air superiority, interception, and ground attack roles, with a combat radius of over 500 km and provisions for air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.

Though classified as a fourth-generation platform, the Tejas incorporates several 4.5-generation capabilities, including an advanced glass cockpit, multi-mode radar, electronic warfare systems, and precision targeting pods. It has been steadily entering service with the Indian Air Force, with additional orders placed earlier this year for nearly 100 new units. The Indian government has also been actively marketing the Tejas for export, with interest expressed by Argentina, Malaysia, and Egypt.

Despite its achievements, the Tejas program has faced criticism over delays, cost overruns, and concerns about flight performance in edge-of-envelope scenarios. The crash at Dubai—the most high-profile and fatal accident involving the Tejas to date—comes at a moment of heightened scrutiny, both domestically and internationally.

While the official investigation is ongoing, several potential causes are under consideration based on the available evidence, flight behaviour, and aircraft design parameters. One key possibility is aerodynamic stall induced during a high-G or negative-G manoeuvre at low altitude. The delta-wing configuration of the Tejas offers excellent agility but has known limitations in energy recovery and angle-of-attack control, particularly during abrupt changes in flight profile. In display environments, such manoeuvres leave little margin for correction if lift is lost or control surfaces become unresponsive.

Another area of concern is engine reliability. In 2024, a non-fatal Tejas incident was linked to an oil pump failure that led to engine seizure, prompting questions about component redundancy and in-flight diagnostic alerts. Though no engine failure has yet been confirmed in this case, the aircraft’s descent pattern suggests either a sudden loss of thrust or of flight control authority, conditions that could result from a powerplant malfunction, an actuator failure, or a fly-by-wire system error.

Environmental and operational stressors may also have played a role. Air show display aircraft are often pushed to the limits during back-to-back routines, with limited maintenance downtime. Foreign deployments can compound risk through unfamiliar logistics chains, temperature variations, and accelerated wear. The Tejas involved had been performing multiple sorties during the air show week, including high-G routines over Dubai’s humid coastal airspace, where condensation, overheating, or avionics strain may affect aircraft behaviour.

It is also worth noting that earlier in the week, a viral video showed liquid dripping beneath a static Tejas display in Dubai. Indian authorities later clarified that the discharge was environmental condensation, not oil or fuel. Nevertheless, any suggestion of a preexisting system’s anomaly—even if unrelated—adds complexity to the inquiry.

From a professional fast-jet pilot’s perspective, the evidence and trajectory of the crash strongly suggest a combination of flight envelope exceedance and insufficient recovery altitude. The Tejas, while highly manoeuvrable, relies entirely on digital flight control to maintain stability, and any disruption in system logic, sensor feedback, or power output during an aggressive manoeuvre could compromise the aircraft’s ability to recover.

The Tejas is a delta-wing platform with relaxed static stability, meaning it is inherently unstable and cannot be flown without a fully functioning fly-by-wire system. This allows for superb agility but makes it more susceptible to loss of control if flight laws are degraded or environmental factors distort airflow over the wings or control surfaces. High-G manoeuvres at low altitude introduce the risk of an accelerated stall or departure, which, if it occurs below 300 feet above ground level, is often unrecoverable even with pilot inputs or emergency procedures.

Single-engine operation further limits survivability during a power failure. Unlike twin-engine fighters, which can maintain flight on one engine, the Tejas cannot recover from thrust loss below certain speed and altitude thresholds. A sudden engine rollback or stall during a high-angle-of-attack manoeuvre would likely lead to uncontrollable descent.

Additionally, human factors such as pilot workload, airshow repetition fatigue, and psychological pressure during international displays could have influenced momentary decision-making. Even highly experienced pilots can misjudge manoeuvre timing or altitude clearance in dynamic conditions. Heat, humidity, and performance expectations contribute to operational stress that cannot be ignored in the final inquiry.

Finally, the lack of ejection suggests that the aircraft’s descent was either too rapid or too disorienting to allow a safe escape. The Tejas is equipped with a Martin-Baker Mk. 16 ejection seat with zero-zero capability, but activation requires time, altitude, and the correct aircraft attitude. If the aircraft entered a negative-G dive or rapidly pitched nose-down, the window for ejection may have closed within seconds.

The investigation will analyse telemetry data, onboard diagnostics, and external footage to identify whether the root cause is system failure, aerodynamic overload, or human error. The outcome, regardless of cause, will affect India’s efforts to market the Tejas abroad and may lead to changes in flight envelope management, demonstration approvals, and export airworthiness certifications.

Team Maverick