India Meteorological Department

Seasonal Outlook for the Hot Weather Season (April to June) 2025 and Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature in April 2025

Highlights

• During the hot weather season (April to June 2025), above-normal maximum temperatures are expected across most parts of the country, except in some areas of west peninsular India and isolated regions of east-central and east India, where normal temperatures are likely.
• Above-normal minimum temperatures are predicted across most parts of India, except for some isolated regions in extreme northwest India, where normal minimum temperatures are expected.
• In April 2025, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most of India, except for extreme southern peninsular and northwest regions, where normal temperatures are expected.
• Above-normal minimum temperatures are anticipated across most of India, except for isolated pockets in northwest and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures may be recorded.
• An above-normal number of heatwave days are expected over north and east peninsular India, central India, east India, and the plains of northwest India during the hot weather season (April to June 2025).
• In April 2025, heatwave days are likely to be above normal in most parts of east and central India and adjoining peninsular regions.
• The average rainfall across India in April 2025 is expected to be within the normal range (88-112% of Long Period Average – LPA). Normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated in many parts of northwest, peninsular, northeast, and some areas of west-central India, while below-normal rainfall is likely in the remaining regions.

Updated Seasonal Outlook for April to June 2025 and Monthly Outlook for April 2025

1. Background

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has been issuing seasonal forecasts for hot and cold weather seasons since 2016. These forecasts leverage advanced prediction models, including the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach, which integrates data from global climate prediction centers, including IMD/MoES’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS).

IMD has prepared updated seasonal and monthly temperature forecasts for the hot weather season (April to June 2025) and April 2025, which are detailed in the following sections:

• Section 2: Seasonal temperature outlook for April to June 2025
• Section 3: Heatwave outlook for April to June 2025 and April 2025
• Section 4: Monthly rainfall outlook for April 2025

2. Seasonal Temperature Outlook for April to June 2025

• The probability forecast indicates that above-normal maximum temperatures are expected across most of India, except in some parts of west peninsular India and isolated regions in east-central and east India, where normal temperatures are likely.
• Above-normal minimum temperatures are expected over most parts of India, except for isolated areas in extreme northwest India, where normal temperatures are predicted.

3. Monthly Temperature Forecast for April 2025

• In April 2025, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across most of India, except in parts of extreme south peninsular and northwest India, where normal temperatures are expected.
• Above-normal minimum temperatures are expected across most of India, except for isolated pockets in northwest and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are anticipated.

4. Heatwave Outlook for April to June 2025 and April 2025

• The forecast predicts an above-normal number of heatwave days across most parts of north and east peninsular India, central India, east India, and the plains of northwest India during the hot weather season (April to June 2025).
• In April 2025, above-normal heatwave days are expected over most of east and central India and adjoining peninsular India.
• Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Prolonged extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke while also straining infrastructure like power grids and transportation systems.
• Authorities should take anticipatory actions in line with National and State Disaster Management Authority guidelines, including providing cooling centers, issuing heat advisories, and implementing strategies to mitigate urban heat island effects.

5. Monthly Rainfall Outlook for April 2025

• The average rainfall across India in April 2025 is expected to be normal (88-112% of the Long Period Average – LPA). The LPA for April, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 39.2 mm.
• Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely in many parts of northwest, peninsular, and northeast India, as well as some areas of west-central India. Below-normal rainfall is expected in the remaining regions.
• Certain areas, marked by dotted regions on IMD’s rainfall forecast maps, receive very little rainfall in April, while white-shaded areas indicate no significant forecast signals.

6. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Conditions Over the Pacific and Indian Oceans

• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is transitioning from a weak La Niña phase to an ENSO-neutral state. Currently, SSTs are above average in the eastern and far western Pacific but below average in the central Pacific. Forecast models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will persist in the upcoming season.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase, with forecasts indicating its continuation throughout the season.

7. Extended Range and Short- to Medium-Range Forecasting Services

IMD provides extended-range forecasts (7-day averages for the next four weeks) of rainfall and temperatures, updated weekly on Thursdays. These forecasts use the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system and are available on the IMD website: https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php.

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