Myanmar’s Power Shift a Facade as Junta Tightens Grip Ahead of Elections

Myanmar’s military regime on Monday announced a nominal transfer of authority to a civilian-led interim government ahead of a proposed general election in December. However, the move does little to alter the balance of power in the country, with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing still holding the reins as both the acting president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

State-run media reported that the decree issued in 2021—granting the military full control following its coup against Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government—has now been revoked. In its place, a so-called caretaker administration has been formed, along with a special election commission tasked with overseeing the upcoming polls.

Despite these formal changes, analysts argue that this restructuring is superficial and serves only to reinforce the junta’s grip on power. “They are simply reshuffling the same leadership under a different name,” said one Myanmar-focused independent analyst. “There’s no real shift in policy or control—this is a tactical move to prepare for an election whose credibility is already widely questioned.”

Zaw Min Tun, a government spokesperson, confirmed that the state of emergency—which has been extended seven times since the 2021 coup—has now been lifted. “The next six months will be used to prepare and conduct the election,” he told state media.

Since the coup, Myanmar has descended into civil war, with the military facing fierce resistance from both longstanding ethnic armed organizations and newly formed people’s defense forces. These groups now control substantial parts of the country’s border regions, severely limiting the junta’s reach and raising questions about the feasibility of a nationwide vote.

In 2023, the regime attempted a nationwide census as a step toward voter registration but could only carry it out in 145 of the country’s 330 townships—underscoring its loss of territorial control.

The international community, particularly Western governments, has dismissed the upcoming election as a sham designed to cement military dominance. Most opposition parties have been barred from participating or have vowed to boycott the vote altogether.

Human rights organizations continue to raise alarms over the regime’s brutal tactics. According to Amnesty International, more than 6,000 people have been killed and over 20,000 arbitrarily detained since the coup. The group also reported a resurgence of judicial executions and an alarming rise in internal displacement, with over 3.5 million people forced to flee their homes.

While China has voiced its support for Myanmar’s “path to peace and reconciliation,” critics argue that international pressure must increase to prevent further repression. “Calling this a transfer of power is misleading—it’s a strategic move meant to legitimize military rule,” said the analyst.

With the country still engulfed in violence and large swathes effectively outside government control, the prospect of a free, fair, and inclusive election appears remote.

Team Maverick.