Chinese military action against Taiwan in the coming years is plausible and deserves analysis.

What is an apprehension is, that the Peoples Republic of China may initiate a rigid military exercise against Taiwan, whom they do not want to get separated. Maverick News in an attempt to ascertain the cause of the conflict has conducted a detailed insight encompassing the five principal reasons.

First, China is increasingly dissatisfied with Taiwan’s apparent commitment to separation and what it sees as trends running against unification (including in U.S. policy), and it has not ruled out the use of force.

Second, U.S. policy has long emphasised opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo on Taiwan.

Third, Chinese military capabilities continue to improve rapidly.

Fourth, U.S. military and political officials have expressed alarm about the possibility of Chinese military action against Taiwan and how the United States could respond in such a scenario.

Finally, the Taiwanese and Japanese defense communities are also concerned and have begun preparations for such a contingency.

Beijing regards Taiwan as an integral part of China. Recognising what Beijing describes as the “One

China” principle, and, in another form, what Washington describes as its “One China” policy is a

precondition for diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

In April 2023, vide a press conference, Wang Wenbing, then a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had blamed the U.S.- China tensions on “Taiwan independence’ separatists, with the support and connivance of foreign forces” and said, “Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace and stability are as irreconcilable as fire and water”.

Also, a month earlier, the Foreign Minister Qin Gang had equally blamed the United States when he was found quoting, “If the United States does not hit the brake but continues to speed down the wrong path, there will surely be conflict and confrontation, and who will bear the catastrophic consequences?”

Earlier, China had not forsworn the possible use of force to resolve the “Taiwan issue”. Rather it had adopted its Anti-Secession Law in 2005, outlining circumstances in which it might employ force. Indeed, recent statements have been even more pointed. From China’s perspective, U.S. measures such as the Taiwan Travel Act blur the line between unofficial and official diplomatic engagement with Taiwan, violating the terms of the Three Communiques.

China frequently conducts threatening military drills in response to unwelcome events as it did with

missile tests off Taiwan after President Lee Teng-hui’s 1995 visit to Cornell University and, thereafter with military exercises following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taipei and President Tsai Ing-wen’s 2023 meeting in Washington, D.C., with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

It is highly deplorable, the possibilities of Chinese military force against Taiwan and, if so, when that would be; however, it is plausible that China would take military action against Taiwan in the coming years given this rhetoric. This would place it in conflict with long-standing U.S. policy.

When it comes to the United States stand on Taiwan, it needs to be understood that The United States adheres to a One China policy and a strategy of strategic ambiguity that does not commit it to the defense of Taiwan. Nevertheless, it leaves open the strong possibility of intervention in the event of an attack on the island. The Taiwan Relations Act, which provides the most authoritative statement about U.S. interests with regard to Taiwan’s future, does not commit the United States to intervention in the event of an attack. However, it stipulates that the United States would consider “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means” as “of grave concern”. The U.S., like most countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, which China regards as its own territory, but is its strongest international supporter, and main arms supplier, bound by law to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

Moreover, of interest to the question of quarantine and blockade, the definition of “other than peaceful means” explicitly includes “boycotts or embargoes”. Another passage stipulates that “it is the policy of the United States to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardise the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan”.

Over the last 15 years, the idea that the United States is engaged in a strategic competition

with China has taken hold, Republican and Democratic administrations alike have increasingly

emphasised a commitment to Taiwan’s security. This embrace of Taiwan occurred due to growing

concerns about the strategic positions of China and the United States in Asia.

In 2011, the Barrack Obama administration announced it would “rebalance to Asia” and commit more military forces to the region. The 2015 National Military Strategy labeled China as a “revisionist power”; The 2017 National Security Strategy described China as a “strategic competitor”; The 2022 National Security Strategy called it “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge”.

Against this backdrop, it is perhaps not surprising that members of Congress from both parties have

consistently pushed legislation for closer (though ostensibly still unofficial) relations with Taiwan.

The Biden and Trump administrations have reaffirmed U.S. interest in Taiwan’s security. On three

separate occasions, Biden appeared to go beyond established U.S. policy and the provisions of the

Taiwan Relations Act in describing a “commitment” to the defense of Taiwan.

But, on the 25^th. June, 2025, to what could be an unprecedented move, Mr. Donald Trump has imposed a Reciprocal Tariff of 20% on Taiwan. While the 20% rate for Taiwan is less than the 32% threatened in April, it notably exceeds the 15% rates secured by Japan, South Korea and the European Union in trade deals.

“The 20% tariff rate was never Taiwan’s target to begin with. We will continue negotiations and strive for a rate that’s more favourable for Taiwan“, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te told a press briefing. A U.S. official said Lai’s statement that negotiations were continuing was “accurate”.

“The interim rate is lower than the original rate, and it’s much lower than that of several other major trading partners with ongoing negotiations. We can interpret this as Taiwan’s offer being well received and being close to a final agreement“, said the official who declined to be identified, given the sensitivity of the issue.  

Rates on semiconductors and other key tech goods are the subject of a U.S. national security probe, which is being conducted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

President Lai reiterated that once the probe has concluded, Taiwan’s negotiating team will enter into further talks. The U.S. plans to announce the results of the probe in two weeks, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday. However, Section 232 levies are likely to be higher than so-called reciprocal tariffs. “If the tariff rate is set too low, companies would just keep producing in Taiwan and other countries and still face a 15%, 18%, or 20% tariff. That would defeat (Trump’s) goal of reshoring manufacturing to the U.S., so it’s likely to be set higher“.

Taiwan had the sixth-largest trade deficit with the U.S. last year, exporting about $74 billion more than it took in.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a strong statement of support for Taiwan at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May 2025:

“America is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific, and we’re here to stay. The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. We have been since the earliest days of our Republic. We will continue to be an Indo-Pacific nation, with Indo-Pacific interests, for generations to come. Let me begin by saying, we do not seek conflict with Communist China. We will not instigate nor seek to subjugate or humiliate. The President, Trump and the American people have an immense respect for the Chinese people and their civilisation. But we will not be pushed out of this critical region. And we will not let our allies and partners be subordinated and intimidated. To be clear, any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real”.

Team Maverick