US Deterrence; India’s Relations With European Union.

New Delhi; January 2026: America’s volatile foreign policy is forcing India to realign its own priorities. In the domestic arena, the Narendra Modi government seems intended to move faster on domestic reforms to buttress growth that is ordinarily fuelled by commercial ties with the United States.

Internationally, India is intensifying its efforts in building stronger bilateral connections with key partners. Recent summits with the leaders of Russia and China received a great deal of attention. Fortunately, India’s emerging concrete, long-term security, and commercial deals tend to focus on America’s partners and allies. These partners also seem eager in embracing India as their partner in their own hedging strategy.

Despite the imposition of severe reciprocal tariffs, the United States is India’s indispensable economic partner. America is India’s largest export destination for both goods and IT services; the largest source of remittances; and, while “official” totals for inward foreign investment place the United States as the third-largest source, this is significantly distorted by Indian and third country investors taking the leverage of India’s favorable tax treaties with Singapore and Mauritius.

Despite these important proof points of US-India connectivity, India’s membership in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) raises questions about whether India is drawing even closer to American adversaries.

Recent summits of these groups, and resultant photographs of Prime Minister Modi embracing Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi largely reinforce this view.

President Putin’s recent visit to India on December 04th-05th, meeting with Prime Minister Modi and other senior Indian leaders, was not inconsequential; Russia ranks amongst India’s top 5 goods trade partners, while remaining a significant supplier of military equipment to India.  

Helpfully, the “flash” of India’s engagements with American adversaries is overshadowed in “substance” with the quality of its agreements with America’s friends and allies. Some agreements pre-date President Trump’s return to office, but the pace of concluding agreements is accelerating.

Comparing the outcomes of Prime Minister Modi’s late 2025 engagements with Japan and Philippines versus that of Russia. The India-Russia agreements are sectoral and tactical, covering topics like healthcare, food, and some modest investments. The only outcome of real strategic value during the leaders’ summit might be the program of training Indian seafarers on polar routes, though the two countries subsequently signed a military “Reciprocal Logistics Support Agreement (RELOS)” in December 2025. India’s new agreements with Japan and Philippines are far more strategic, covering big picture security cooperation, tangible investments, space, and more.  

India is increasingly comfortable with significant trade agreements. This is another key arrow in India’s quiver as it widens its economic relationships. India has signed 06 trade agreements in the last four years; 03 of these came in the last seven months.  

Of these 06 agreements, 03 are with U.S. security treaty allies (Australia, United Kingdom, and New Zealand) while the other 03 are with countries that regularly cooperate with the United States on security matters (UAE, Oman, Swiss-led EFTA).

India is now shifting its stance towards Europe while renewing its vigor in its zeal to augment ties with the European Union. This year’s annual Republic Day ceremony on January 26th will feature the European Commission President, Ursala von der Leyen, and the European Council President, Antonio Costa.  

India is also improving relations with China. But most of the concrete outcomes are merely returning to the status quo from a decade back, such as resuming direct flights, greater Indian openness to Chinese imports, and reports that India is streamlining visa processes for Chinese business leaders. However, the ceiling on the relationship remains quite low due to persistent frictions over their trade imbalance, Tibetan Buddhism, Pakistan, and more.  

There are certainly some good opportunities for the United States and India to repair their damaged relationship.

First, President Trump should commit to visit India soon for the Quad Leaders meeting and bilateral engagements.

Second, the United States should move forward with the first phase of the trade agreement. The current version may not encompass everything President Trump wants, but it is likely pushing against India’s real redlines.  

During this period of stagnant US-India ties, it is comforting to know India’s most significant global engagements have largely centered around American partners. The distance to a “return to normalcy” is less vast than if India were strongly cementing ties with Russia, China, and Iran.  

Team Maverick.