Adani Power Eyes 42 GW Capacity by FY32; Strong Growth Outlook Prompts Jefferies to Retain ‘Buy’ Rating

New Delhi, June 2026 : Adani Power Ltd. (APL), India’s largest private thermal power producer, is positioning itself for a major growth phase, with plans to more than double its installed generation capacity to 42 GW by FY32. According to a recent research report by Jefferies, the company’s expansion strategy, strong power purchase agreement (PPA) pipeline, and improving financial profile support a positive long-term outlook, prompting the brokerage to maintain its “Buy” recommendation on the stock.

The company currently operates 18.3 GW of installed power generation capacity, up from 13.65 GW in FY23. This represents a growth of nearly 34 per cent in just three years. Jefferies believes Adani Power is on track to achieve one of the fastest growth rates in the Indian power generation sector over the next decade.

A key factor supporting this expansion is the increasing availability of long-term PPAs, which provide revenue visibility and reduce earnings volatility. Of the planned 23.7 GW capacity addition, approximately 56 per cent has already been tied up under long-term power supply agreements. The company aims to secure PPAs for the remaining capacity before commissioning the projects.

Over the last two years, Adani Power has won 12.6 GW of thermal power PPAs out of the 19.3 GW put up for bidding by various state utilities. As a result, nearly 95 per cent of its existing operational capacity is now covered under PPAs, compared to just above 80 per cent at the end of FY25.

The company has also benefited from higher tariff agreements in recent years. In September 2024, it signed a 1.6 GW PPA with Maharashtra State Electricity Board for its Raipur power plant at a tariff of Rs 5.4 per unit. Subsequently, between August 2025 and March 2026, Adani Power secured contracts for around 8 GW of capacity with utilities in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu at tariffs ranging between Rs 5.8 and Rs 6.3 per unit. These higher tariffs are expected to improve profitability and cash generation over the coming years.

Jefferies estimates that Adani Power’s revenue will grow from Rs 5.38 lakh crore in FY26 to nearly Rs 12.5 lakh crore by FY30. EBITDA is projected to increase from Rs 1.95 lakh crore in FY26 to about Rs 4.47 lakh crore by FY30, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23 per cent.

Net profit is also expected to witness strong growth. Adjusted profit after tax (PAT) is forecast to rise from Rs 1.11 lakh crore in FY26 to Rs 2.30 lakh crore by FY30. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from Rs 5.7 in FY26 to Rs 11.9 by FY30.

The company’s operational cash generation remains another major strength. Jefferies expects operating cash flows to grow at nearly 20 per cent CAGR between FY26 and FY30. Annual operating cash flow is estimated to increase from Rs 2.05 lakh crore in FY26 to more than Rs 4.18 lakh crore by FY30.

Although Adani Power is undertaking significant capital expenditure to support its expansion plans, analysts believe its balance sheet remains manageable. Net debt-to-EBITDA is expected to peak at around 3.4 times in FY27 before declining steadily to nearly 2 times by FY30. This would place the company among the least leveraged power generation firms in the country.

To support future growth, the company has already secured land for the entire 42 GW target and placed equipment orders for all upcoming projects. Major orders have been awarded to Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), ensuring visibility on project execution. Around 6.9 GW of new capacity is expected to become operational by FY29 alone.

The report also compares Adani Power favourably with NTPC, India’s largest power producer. While NTPC’s EBITDA is expected to increase about 1.7 times between FY26 and FY30, Adani Power’s EBITDA could grow 2.3 times during the same period, reflecting its more aggressive expansion strategy.

Looking beyond thermal power, the company is also preparing for opportunities in nuclear energy. In April 2026, Adani Power incorporated two new subsidiaries focused on exploring nuclear power generation, indicating its intent to diversify its energy portfolio over the long term.

Based on these growth prospects, Jefferies has assigned a price target of Rs 255 per share to Adani Power, representing an upside from current levels. However, the brokerage cautioned that risks remain, including the possibility of past PPA-related disputes resurfacing and any sharp decline in merchant power realisations.

Despite these risks, the report concludes that Adani Power’s combination of capacity expansion, strong contracted revenues, improving profitability and healthy cash-flow generation positions it as one of the most attractive growth stories in India’s power sector.

(The content of this article is sourced from a news agency and has not been edited by the Mavericknews30 team.)