Heatwaves spiked 1/3rd of rise in India’s power demand during 2024 summer

India’s electricity demand during the severe heatwave months of April to June 2024 rose by 10.4% in comparison to the previous year, with increased use of air conditioning contributing to nearly a third of the rise, according to a new report released on Tuesday. The sixth edition of global energy think tank Ember’s Global Electricity Review also said heatwaves were responsible for almost a fifth of the increase in global electricity demand in 2024 and were the main reason behind a 1.4% rise in fossil fuel-based power generation. This in turn has led to a 1.6% increase in global power sector emissions, adding 223 million tons of carbon dioxide and pushing total emissions to a record high of 14.6 billion tons.

Without the heat-related demand, fossil generation would have grown just 0.2%, as clean energy met 96% of the demand growth not caused by hotter temperatures, said the report. In India, electricity demand during April-September 2024 was 6.1% higher compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Ember estimated that 19% of this rise was due to higher temperatures. During the peak heatwave months from April to June, the demand was 10.8% higher than the previous year.

“This was primarily driven by economic growth, with air conditioning accounting for an estimated 30% of the year-on-year increase. In May, cooling was responsible for more than one-third of the year-on-year demand increase“, the report said. India’s total electricity demand rose by 5 per cent in 2024. Clean energy sources met 33% of this additional demand, while coal accounted for 64%. This is a drop from 2023, when coal met 91% of the increase.

A recent study said India may add 130 to 150 million new room air conditioners in the next decade, which could push peak power demand up by over 180 GW by 2035, straining the electricity grid.

As per IMD reports last month that India is likely to see a 09 to 10 per cent increase in peak electricity demand this summer as more heatwave days are expected. The share of household electricity uses in India rose from 22% in 2012-13 to 25% in 2022-23. Experts say this is largely due to economic growth and higher demand for cooling as temperatures continue to rise.

Ongoing research at the Oxford India Centre for Sustainable Development says that in a world that is 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, India will see the highest cooling demand in terms of population, followed by China, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, the Philippines and the United States.

Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department said that the country is likely to experience above-normal temperatures from April to June, with more heatwave days in central and eastern India and the northwestern plains. The year 2024 was also the warmest recorded both in India, and globally.

This year, heatwave conditions were observed as early as February 27–28. The first official heatwave of 2024 was recorded on April 5. While heatwaves are common in April and May, scientists say climate change is making them more frequent and intense.

A 2022 study warned that the risk of heatwaves could increase tenfold in the 21st century, with over 70% of India’s land area likely to face extreme heat.

Team Maverick