Air Force Actions Needed to Expeditiously Address Critical Risks to Sentinel Transition.

Sept 2025 : The United States Government Accountability Office, has found that the United States Air Force has developed planning documents for the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel but has not developed a risk management plan. The transition was planned to begin in fiscal year 2025, but those plans are on hold while the Department of Defence (DOD) restructures the Sentinel program. The Air Force developed an overarching transition strategy and a site transition plan for F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, the first base scheduled to convert to Sentinel. However, the Air Force has not yet developed a transition risk management plan, a leading project planning practice. A detailed risk

management plan would help the Air Force establish an organized, methodical way to identify, assess, and respond to the myriad risks, and better position the Air Force for a successful transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.

While the Air Force has taken some actions to prepare operators, maintainers, and security forces for the transition, the Air Force has not developed a schedule for construction of a Sentinel test facility. The test facility is necessary early in the transition as part of a multistep process to revise policy and instructions that will be needed to prepare security forces for the transition and concurrent operation

of Minuteman III and Sentinel.

Department of Defence (DOD) is assessing options to meet strategic deterrent requirements during the

transition, but delays require prolonged operation of Minuteman III. Air Force officials are assessing options to potentially operate Minuteman III through 2050. However, prolonged operation presents sustainment risks. Addressing these risks in a transition risk management plan would help ensure the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system meets requirements during the transition.

The United States has operated the land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system for over 50 years, well past the original intended service life of 10 years. The system includes

more than 600 facilities, including 450 missile silos, across five states. The prior studies has found the replacement system, Sentinel, faces critical cost overruns and significant schedule delays.

1. The Department of Defence (DOD) estimates the Sentinel program will cost more than $140 billion and be delayed by years. According to the Air Force, the service must continue to operate and maintain the aging Minuteman III system over the next decade and beyond to meet strategic deterrent requirements until Sentinel is fully fielded.

• The commanding general of Air Force Global Strike Command overseeing the transition testified before Congress in April 2023 that the transition “will be one of the major work projects our nation has undertaken probably in the last 50 plus years”.

• Air Force Global Strike Command officials have informed media houses that the transition is a very complex project that involves operating two weapon systems simultaneously while executing a massive military movement to convert the old system to the new system. The commander of U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee in February 2024 that “Sentinel constitutes an incredibly complex megaproject to replace every facet of the Minuteman III weapon system”.

Senate Report 118-58, accompanying a bill for the National Defence Authorisation Act for Fiscal Year 2024, included a provision to review the Air Force’s planning for the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel. On review, it was exemplified the extent to which the Air Force has:

• planned for the transition and concurrent operation of Minuteman III to Sentinel,
• developed plans to prepare operators, maintainers, and security forces for the transition,
• developed plans to meet strategic deterrent requirements during the transition.

The U.S. strategic nuclear deterrent consists of a triad of ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and nuclear-capable bomber aircraft. Minuteman III is a strategic ICBM weapon system that represents

the land leg of the nation’s nuclear triad. First deployed in 1970 with a planned service life of 10 years, the Minuteman III weapon system consists of missiles as well as 450 launch facilities and 45 launch control centres. The Air Force extended the Minuteman III service life since its deployment by various service-life extension programs. The weapon system can deliver one to three nuclear warheads at intercontinental ranges.

Minuteman III missiles are dispersed in hardened silos, known as launch facilities, to protect against attack. They are connected to underground launch control centres through a system of hardened cables. A launch facility is an uncrewed site that houses the missile and all equipment required to maintain the missile in a launch-ready configuration. These underground facilities have been considered part of the Minuteman III weapon system since 2014.

Missile alert facilities are crewed compounds that encompass the launch control centre, a launch control equipment building, and support buildings. Missile alert facilities are crewed by security personnel, a cook, a facilities manager, and a launch crew. Each launch control centre controls 10 hardened launch facilities and is crewed by two officers, also known as a two-person alert team, on 24 – hour alert.

USSTRATCOM is the U.S. combatant command responsible for the strategic deterrence and nuclear operations missions. To execute its nuclear deterrence mission, USSTRATCOM has unique operational

planning requirements for ICBMs.

Team Maverick