Russia is resorting to price caps and gasoline rationing after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refining capacity during peak demand.

Oct 2025 : Fuel prices on Russia’s exchanges soared in August, reaching historic highs. The crisis quickly spilled over into the retail sector. By September, the gasoline shortage had reached an estimated 400,000 tons out of the usual two million tons delivered each month, an industry source told Media Houses. As a result, many gas stations had to close.

Independent operators have been especially hard hit. Businesses require a markup of at least Five Rubles per litre ($0.23 per gallon) to break even, but Federal Antimonopoly Service regulations prohibit raising retail prices above the rate of inflation. As a result, large companies keep prices at their own stations below wholesale, selling at a loss and driving smaller rivals out of business.

Data from the analytics company OMT-Consult indicate that between July 28 and September 22, the number of gas stations selling gasoline in Russia fell by 2.6%, equivalent to 360 stations. In certain regions, the scale of the problem was even greater: 14% of stations in Russia’s south closed, and fully half have shut down in the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

In 2025, the crisis escalated due to a new development: beginning in August, the Ukrainian military launched a wave of attacks on Russian oil refineries. Recent drone strikes have damaged plants in Ukhta, Ryazan, Saratov, Volgograd, Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, Samara, Slavyansk, Ilsky, Afipsky, Novoshakhtinsk, and elsewhere. In total, at least 16 of Russia’s 38 refineries have been hit more than once. These facilities supply as much as 20 percent of the country’s refining capacity. The loss of so much refining capacity for so long particularly during peak demand has inevitably disrupted the market’s equilibrium.

The authorities have taken certain radical measures: on September 29, Sergey Aksyonov, Moscow’s top administrator in Crimea, announced that local officials had struck a deal with fuel traders to cap fuel prices for 30 days. During this period, the price for Ai-92 Gasoline on the peninsula will not exceed 70 Rubles per litre (about $2.75 per gallon), Ai-95 will be capped at 76 Rubles ($2.95 per gallon), and Diesel at 75 Rubles ($2.93 per gallon). Additionally, the authorities now limit fuel sales to no more than 30 litres (nearly 9 U.S. gallons) per person per transaction.

Regions in the Far East including Moscow, Moscow’s suburbs, the regions of Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Stavropol Krai, and elsewhere are similarly at high risk, though supply issues are intensifying nationwide.

On September 25, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the government would extend its ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year and also impose restrictions allowing only refineries to export diesel, barring resellers and traders. The official described the situation as “a minor shortage of petroleum products, covered by accumulated reserves”, acknowledging that “the overall market balance for September and October remains challenging”. According to Novak, Russia’s Energy Ministry, oil firms, Russian Railways, and the Transportation Ministry are all working to increase supply.

Experts anticipate that, as the peak demand season winds down and export controls remain in place, Russia’s fuel supply situation should normalize by late October or early November. If necessary, the government has other regulatory levers at its disposal. For now, deliveries from Belarus have provided certain degree of respite.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center, asserted that the Russian leadership possess the ability in transferring fuel from more remote plants. Some shortfalls can be filled using Rosrezerv’s stockpiles, and remaining deficit could be offset by imports from Belarus.

At the same time, Vakulenko warned that Russia’s consumer market could face unprecedented problems. In that case, authorities might need to resort to “emergency measures – including removing price controls, temporarily lowering fuel-quality standards” to allow output from small refineries to enter the market, and even imposing gasoline rationing.

Team Maverick