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Axis My India Exit Poll Signals UDF Surge in Kerala, NDA Dominance in Assam, NRC Edge in Puducherry

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New Delhi, April 2026 : The latest exit poll released by Axis My India has projected significant political shifts across key states and Union Territories, indicating a strong comeback for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, a decisive mandate for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam, and continued dominance of the NRC alliance in Puducherry.

Kerala: UDF Set for Strong Comeback

According to the survey, the Congress-led UDF appears poised for a sweeping victory in Kerala, potentially ending the rule of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The UDF is projected to secure between 78 and 90 seats in the 140-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 71.

The LDF is estimated to win between 49 and 62 seats, while the NDA is likely to remain marginal with just 0 to 3 seats. Vote share projections further strengthen the UDF’s position, placing it at 44 per cent, compared to 39 per cent for the LDF and 14 per cent for the NDA.

Interestingly, despite Vijayan remaining the most preferred Chief Ministerial candidate with 33 per cent support, a notable 26 per cent of voters expressed a desire for change, a factor that appears to have worked in favour of the UDF. Regionally, the UDF has performed strongly in Kochi and Malabar, while the LDF retains some influence in Travancore.

Assam: NDA Headed for Clear Majority

In Assam, the exit poll points to a decisive victory for the NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The alliance is projected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, well above the majority mark of 64.

The Congress-led alliance is expected to secure 24 to 36 seats, while others may win up to three seats. The NDA’s vote share is projected at 48 per cent, reflecting a gain from the previous election, compared to 38 per cent for the opposition.

Regionally, the NDA shows dominance in Bodoland and Central Assam. Sarma continues to enjoy strong popularity, emerging as the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate with 48 per cent support, ahead of Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi.

Development remains a key driver of voter sentiment, with 28 per cent citing it as their primary reason for voting, followed by 14 per cent highlighting government welfare schemes.

Puducherry: NRC Alliance Likely to Retain Power

In Puducherry, the NRC alliance—comprising All India N R Congress, BJP, AIADMK, and allies—is projected to retain power with a comfortable majority. The alliance is expected to win between 16 and 20 seats in the 30-member Assembly.

The Congress-led alliance is likely to secure 6 to 8 seats, while the TVK alliance may win 2 to 4 seats. The NRC alliance leads the vote share with 40 per cent, followed by 30 per cent for the Congress-led bloc and 17 per cent for TVK.

Chief Minister N Rangasamy remains the most preferred leader with 42 per cent support, though actor-politician Vijay has emerged as a notable contender with 17 per cent backing.

Exit Poll Summary

Region	Leading Alliance	Seat Projection	Vote Share	Key Insight
Kerala	UDF	78–90	44%	Strong anti-incumbency wave against LDF
Assam	NDA	88–100	48%	Development and leadership driving support
Puducherry	NRC Alliance	16–20	40%	Stable leadership and governance advantage

Key Highlights

UDF resurgence in Kerala driven by a strong demand for political change despite the popularity of Pinarayi Vijayan.
NDA dominance in Assam under Himanta Biswa Sarma, with development emerging as the central electoral theme.
NRC alliance stability in Puducherry, with N Rangasamy retaining voter confidence while new players like Vijay gain traction.

With counting scheduled soon, these projections set the stage for potentially significant political shifts, though the final verdict will ultimately depend on the actual vote count.