Moldova’s 2025 Parliamentary Elections would be a benchmark in defending democracy.

Sept 2025 : Moldova has recently reached an important democratic milestone, celebrating 34 years of independence from the Soviet Union. Moreover, in one month, the country will experience another significant democratic event by holding pivotal parliamentary elections on Sunday, September 28, 2025. This election comes at a critical juncture for the small European nation, as it continues to navigate complex domestic challenges and struggles to position itself between Europe and Russia.

Currently, both the Moldovan Parliament and the presidency are controlled by a single pro-Western political party, called the Party of Action and Solidarity (in Romanian, Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate, PAS), which is seeking to maintain its majority in Parliament. However, it faces stiff and well-organized opposition, including parties with alleged ties to the Kremlin and a platform aimed at reversing Moldova’s EU alignment. Beyond its oversight powers, the Moldovan Parliament has significant control over the executive branch by approving the prime minister and the cabinet, making the outcome of this election especially consequential.

The election represents another test of Moldova’s resilience in the face of ongoing election interference from Russia, and broader hybrid war tactics. The country has a long history of electoral interference, both by domestic and foreign actors. In the past, allegations have been made that citizens and protesters have been paid by political parties, oligarchs, or foreign actors to sway electors to their side. The outcome of the parliamentary election will be a key indicator of whether Moldova can continue to chart a path toward EU membership or risk being pulled back into the Kremlin’s orbit.

The integrity of this election will not only impact Moldova’s future but also serve as a broader barometer of democratic resilience in the region. Malign actors across the globe continue to exploit democratic vulnerabilities, sowing confusion, amplifying divisions, and fuelling domestic instability for their own strategic gain. In this context, it is in the interest of the United States, along with its European allies and partners, to support Moldova’s ability to hold free, fair, and transparent elections.

Key Contenders and Latest Polling Trends –

There are currently 21 contenders registered with the Central Electoral Commission of Moldova, a record for a parliamentary election. It is worth noting that contenders can register either as a political party, a bloc, or an independent candidate. To enter Parliament, each of these three categories has a different required threshold of the election: 05% for a political party, 07% for blocs, and 02% for independent candidates.

Polling estimates vary, but if the elections were held tomorrow, the outcome would likely be fragmented with four parties gaining seats in parliament. The pro-Western PAS party is projected to obtain 25.8% of the election, with the other three parties in contention predicted to each receive between 06% to 20% of the election. However, with approximately 20% of the electors still undecided, the election’s outcome could shift quickly in the coming month.

Currently, PAS has an outright majority in Parliament, holding 63 of the 101 seats. However, it seems unlikely that any political party will capture a majority in Parliament in this election. If no party wins an outright majority, parties will need to negotiate with each other to form a coalition to govern. While creating a coalition government is a common occurrence in Moldova, this election will be a close election, which will lead to a potentially contentious negotiation to form a governing coalition.

Policy Issues at the Forefront –

There are key domestic and geopolitical issues likely to be decision points for Moldovan electors as they head to the polls. On the domestic front, combating corruption and ensuring access to a stable and affordable energy supply are likely top of mind. On the foreign policy front, there is a decision between continuing to chart a path toward the European Union or returning to warmer relations with Russia, and the potential security implications of both these pathways.

All the parties running in the Parliamentary elections will need to convince the electorate that energy supply and pricing will be more stable under their leadership. Earlier this year, Russia cut off its gas supply to Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria. This led to rolling blackouts and increased household costs across Moldova, including the Transnistrian region. While the situation was eventually resolved with the support of the European Union, it led to widespread discontent over the government’s lack of preparedness. Russia’s decision to cut off gas to Transnistria with little warning was at least in part designed to help fuel the narrative that the current Moldovan government does not care about Russian-speaking populations in Moldova. It also helped create a crisis in Transnistria, perhaps to encourage the population to election against the incumbent government.

The crisis fuelled the narrative that the current government is unable to meet the country’s energy security needs. Moldovans’ dissatisfaction with energy security is just one of several concerns about PAS’s effectiveness that Russia seeks to exploit. Citizens are also disappointed about the lack of progress in combating corruption, a key component of PAS’s political platform. For example, there had been no major corruption prosecutions resulting in a jail sentence before the summer of 2025. Furthermore, there is a public perception that there has not been sufficient purging and accountability for corrupt prosecutors in Moldova.

In August 2025, a pro-Russian politician who is the governor of Moldova’s only semi-autonomous region of Gagauzia, was sentenced to seven years in prison for the receipt of illegal campaign financing directly from Russia. The apprehension in July 2025 of a former Moldovan politician wanted in connection with the 2014 theft of a billion dollars from the Moldovan treasury presents another opportunity for this accountability. He was detained in Greece, and Moldova has requested his extradition. If this occurs before the September elections, it may offer an opportunity for a significant win against the perpetrators of the billion-dollar theft. It is also possible that his extradition to Moldova allows him to restart his political network and run in this year’s parliamentary elections.

The sporadic and limited focus on prosecutions of those working on behalf of the Russian government supports the opposition parties’ painting of PAS as running a one-party state that limits personal freedoms. There is also a narrative that PAS has itself dipped into public corruption, for example, through the award of contracts to family members of elected PAS officials. If Moldovan citizens regard the process of combating corruption as opaque, it may undermine trust in reforms and hurt PAS at the polls.

On the foreign policy front, PAS has been working to deliver results that benefit Moldovan citizens. Moldova’s relationships with its neighbours, Ukraine and Romania, have never been closer or more collaborative. In addition, Moldova’s EU accession has been fast-tracked, leading to increased economic opportunities across sectors, as well as increased EU aid. Furthermore, PAS has portrayed itself as the dam protecting the country from Russian capture, presenting Moldova as on a path toward European Union integration with a secure, stable future.

However, pro-Russian activity and influence will attempt to demonstrate that PAS and the European Union are not a viable pathway to security and prosperity. In this regard, PAS will need to demonstrate not only that it can repel Russia’s disruptive activities but also deliver substantive progress on domestic issues, including, but not limited to, energy security and combating corruption. If PAS is unable to convince Moldovans that they can deliver, they may lose their hard-won majority.

Inside the Interference Toolbox –

While election interference in Moldova is not a new phenomenon, these activities have dramatically increased in recent years. For example, in the local election held in November 2023, there was a doubling of violations noted by election observers.

The 2024 presidential elections and European Union referendum were marked by a level of disruption unprecedented in Moldova’s history, including, but not limited to, large-scale direct election buying, paid protests, and cyberattacks. According to some estimates, Russia spent approximately €200 million on efforts to influence the election results. However, the Russian efforts ultimately did not deliver the results the Kremlin had hoped, as Moldovans re-elected their current president, Maia Sandu, and voted to pass a referendum codifying Moldova’s aim of joining the European Union in the country’s constitution. However, both President Sandu’s re-election and the EU referendum were passed by slim margins, giving the government a weak mandate and highlighting the effects of Russian interference tactics.

Russia’s playbook of combining a variety of tactics to create chaos around the election and its results is also being used in this year’s parliamentary elections. Last month, President Sandu convened the Security Council (similar to the U.S. National Security Council) to discuss intelligence about Russia’s tactics for interfering with the 2025 Moldovan elections. These include plans from direct election buying to paid disruptions to cyber-attacks. These are more than notional plans, as a Moldovan oligarch affiliated with Russia has openly offered $3,000 each month to Moldovans to engage in protests ahead of the election. With an income per capita of approximately $16,500 a year, the offer of $3,000 a month is a substantial amount of money for average citizens.

In addition, there have also been false narratives spread about President Sandu to influence the upcoming parliamentary elections. Russia’s campaign to sway the Moldovan electorate includes a focus on diaspora electors, who were key in delivering the results of the 2024 presidential election and the EU referendum. Russia has alleged that diaspora elections in the 2024 election were falsified, and this will be repeated in the upcoming parliamentary election. Moreover, pro-Moscow politicians accuse President Sandu of being an illegitimate national leader, portraying her as the “President of the Diaspora”, responding to outside supporters. Despite this false rhetoric, international election observers have reported that the 2024 elections were managed with integrity.

Upholding the Promise of a Democratic Future

Historically, post-Soviet states, especially those with large Russian-speaking populations, have been more easily targeted and influenced by Russian manipulation attempts. Moldova is no exception: It has been a victim of these tactics since it declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. In addition, Moldova’s national development has been hindered by systemic institutional corruption, including but not limited to oligarchs profiting off these systems and the country’s struggle to find its place between Europe and Russia.

As Moldova combats these threats, the United States, its partners and allies, and regional observers should pay attention to the upcoming elections. Moldova’s resilience in the face of Russia’s multifaceted hybrid warfare has regional implications. In the upcoming elections, if a Russian-aligned coalition takes control of Parliament, it is likely to negatively impact bilateral relationships with Moldova’s neighbours, namely Romania and Ukraine.

Moreover, Moldova’s ability to withstand these pressures serves as a stabilizing force for Eastern Europe, particularly given its strategic position along NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank. In standing against these foreign interference attempts, Moldova not only defends its own sovereignty but also reinforces the broader European security architecture. Moldova’s ongoing struggle is more than a national challenge: It sends a powerful message to adversaries around the globe who seek to undermine free elections and erode faith in democratic institutions.

Team Maverick