Exit Polls Predict Big Win for BJP–Shiv Sena Alliance in BMC Elections

Mumbai, Jan 2026 : The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)–Shiv Sena alliance appears poised for a decisive victory in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, according to multiple exit polls cited by media reports. The surveys suggest that the ruling Mahayuti alliance, led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, has surged far ahead of its rivals, facing limited resistance from the united front of the Thackeray brothers and leaving the Congress-led alliance trailing well behind.

At least two major exit polls have projected a clear and commanding mandate for the BJP–Shiv Sena combine. The polls indicate that despite Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray coming together after nearly two decades of political separation, their alliance has struggled to significantly dent the dominance of the ruling coalition in Mumbai’s civic body elections.

According to exit poll findings, the Mahayuti alliance has emerged as the preferred choice among migrant voters from North and South India and is also expected to secure a substantial share of Maratha votes. In contrast, the Shiv Sena (UBT)–Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) alliance appears to have gained limited traction, largely relying on a combination of Marathi and Muslim votes. Even within these traditional vote banks, the alliance is reportedly facing wavering support.

Polling agencies Axis My India and JVC have both forecast a sweeping victory for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance. As per JVC’s projections, the BJP–Sena combine is likely to win around 138 wards in the 227-member BMC, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) is expected to secure about 59 wards. The Congress-led alliance is projected to perform poorly, with an estimated tally of around 23 wards.

Axis My India’s exit poll presents a similar picture, predicting that the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance could win between 131 and 151 wards. The Shiv Sena (UBT)-led alliance is projected to secure between 58 and 68 seats, again indicating a significant gap between the ruling coalition and its main challengers.

However, another survey by The Sakal Poll suggests a relatively closer contest, though it still gives an edge to the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance. According to this poll, the ruling coalition could win around 119 wards, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) may secure approximately 75 seats. The Congress is expected to remain below the 20-seat mark, reinforcing its marginal presence in the BMC race.

The 2026 BMC elections have drawn heightened attention as the Thackeray cousins—Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray of the MNS—joined forces in an attempt to challenge the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance. Shiv Sena (UBT) contested around 160 wards, while the MNS fielded candidates in about 53 wards.

The BMC, regarded as the country’s richest civic body with an annual budget running into tens of thousands of crores, went to polls on Thursday along with 28 other municipal corporations across Maharashtra. Voting for the 227 BMC wards took place from 7:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., with counting of votes scheduled for Friday.

Team Maverick