RBI Expected To Counterfeit The Plummeting Of Rupee Values Amidst Weak Asian Cues.

Mumbai; January 2026: The Indian rupee is expected to open on the lower mode today, on weak Asia risk and flow pressures, with traders saying the central bank remains a key backstop to prevent a move past the 92 level. The one-month non-deliverable forward showed the rupee remains vulnerable to a break past 92-per-dollar level, with the currency likely to open at in between Rs. 91.90, and Rs. 91.96.

The rupee had hit an all-time low of 91.9850 yesterday, pressured by dollar-buying tied to NDF maturities and a chronic mismatch between dollar demand and supply.

Bankers said it was sustained intervention by the Reserve Bank of India that prevented a further slide, with the central bank stepping in to defend the Rs. 92 per dollar threshold.

“It is hardly a surprise that 92 was defended, most would have expected that”, a currency trader at a private sector bank said. “However, you can’t count on it being a hard stop. Recent price action suggests they will not defend it too aggressively”.

The rupee is down about 2.3% so far this month and is headed for its worst monthly performance since September 2022, weighed down by a confluence of largely domestic factors. Meanwhile, Bankers cited increased dollar demand from banks linked to bullion imports, persistent equity outflows and a build-up of depreciation expectations. Exporters, meanwhile, have been slow to hedge, constraining dollar supply and adding pressure on the currency.

The rupee faces headwinds from weaker Asian peers, after regional currencies and equities fell alongside U.S. equity futures on report that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Kevin Warsh is seen by analysts as an independent pick rather than someone closely aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump. Warsh is one of the shortlisted candidates to lead the central bank when Powell’s leadership term ends in May, went to the White House for a meeting with Trump on Thursday, according to White House.

Trump wants the Federal to cut interest rates deeply. His escalating pressure on Powell ​and the Fed for cuts has given rise to the possibility that Powell might remain at the Fed beyond May to try to safeguard the Federal from further political pressure. Powell’s separate term as a member of the Board of Governors runs to 2028.

The Federal, which have cut the rates thrice in 2025, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% ‍range after the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Trump says the rate should be two to three percentage points lower, a level historically consistent with a stalled or faltering economy. The US economy grew at a 4.4% annualised rate in the third quarter, according to Commerce Department data.

Oil prices, meanwhile, are headed for their biggest monthly rise in years amid heightened tensions in the Middle East over a possible U.S. attack on Iran.

Team Maverick.