Amid Rising Pressure from the U.S. and Allies, Iran’s Regional Network Faces Uncertainty

In recent days, global pressure on Iran has intensified. U.S. President Donald Trump has vengefully threatened Iran’s Supreme Leader, declaring the nuclear chief “an easy target” and demanding “unconditional surrender.” At the same time, countries such as Germany, Canada, the U.K., and Australia have adopted a firm diplomatic posture, calling on Iran to fully abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Is Iran Isolated?

On the surface, Iran appears to be in a precarious position. But beneath the heightened rhetoric lies a carefully constructed network of regional allies—known as the “axis of resistance”—that has long served as Iran’s proxy force, deterring direct attacks from U.S. or Israeli forces.

The Axis in Retreat?

1. Hezbollah (Lebanon): Once Iran’s most potent non-state ally, it has been severely weakened by a series of Israeli military operations targeting its infrastructure and weapon stores. The high-profile assassination of Hezbollah’s charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a symbolic and strategic punch, significantly diminishing the group’s deterrence capability.
2. Iranian-backed Militias (Syria): With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, most of these militias have been expelled or neutralized. This has removed another critical foothold for Iranian influence in the Levant region.

Despite these setbacks, Iran retains influence through other allied groups:

1. Popular Mobilisation Forces (Iraq): With an estimated strength of 200,000, the PMF remains potent. In the event of an existential threat to Iran, it could launch attacks on the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. Kata’ib Hezbollah— one of the PMF factions—threatened precisely that should America intervene.
2. Houthis (Yemen): Armed with roughly similar numbers, the Houthis pose a dangerous wildcard. They have previously launched coordinated strikes on U.S. and Saudi targets, and could escalate pro-Iranian retaliation in the event of direct assault on Tehran.

Strategic Escalation Risks

If the conflict escalates, Iran itself could employ ballistic missiles against U.S. bases in the Gulf and potentially close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for around 20% of the world’s oil. This would spark a region-wide escalation well beyond a single border.

Allies: Limited but Vocal Support

Across the region, Iran has garnered some level of support—but with significant caveats:

• Pakistan: Iran has made overtures to Pakistan to deepen ties amid the recent Israeli strikes. Trump’s engagement with Pakistan’s army chief shows Washington is aware of Pakistan’s growing importance. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pledged “unwavering solidarity,” and Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned Israel “will think many times before taking on Pakistan.” Though Pakistan has amplified support, it has stopped short of any military commitment and is actively urging diplomatic interventions, including from China.
• Other Muslim-majority Nations: Nearly two dozen have publicly condemned Israel’s actions and called for restraint. There are low expectations, however, for military aid due to their strategic closeness to the U.S.

At the global level:

• Russia and China: Both have issued sharp rebukes of Israeli strikes, and at the U.N. Security Council have blocked punitive measures. But both are preoccupied—Russia with its Ukraine war and the shifting dynamics with the U.S., and China prioritizing economic partnerships over regional entanglements. Neither has shown clear willingness to open a new front by supplying Iran with direct military support or entering a confrontation with the U.S.

Conclusion: Iran on Shaky Shelter

Iran’s network of regional allies has suffered substantial degradation in recent years. Hezbollah and Syrian militias are weakened. Iraq’s PMF and Yemen’s Houthis remain operational but confined to indirect engagement rather than open warfare. Regional support exists in rhetoric, but material backing remains limited due to diplomatic sensitivities.

Key global powers may step up if the crisis spirals into regime-threatening levels, but for now remain cautious. Russia and China appear inclined to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S., while Pakistan’s stance is support without escalation. Tehran’s ability to rely on its axis of resistance as a genuine shield may be far weaker than once believed.

✔️ Iran’s proxy network remains a deterrent—but damaged and bounded.
✔️ Any direct strike will trigger potential escalation, though Iran’s allies may be constrained.
✔️ Global reaction is firmly vocal, but active support unlikely without broader destabilization.

Team Maverick.