Prevailing La Niña Conditions Heighten Risks to Agricultural Production and Food Security.

According to the latest weather forecasts, “La Niña” conditions emerged in September 2025 and is

expected to be a weak-to-moderate event and persist into early 2026. The La Niña phenomenon is typically associated with below‑average rainfall amounts in parts of East  Africa, Central Asia, the

Near East, southern parts of South America and the United States of America. By contrast, above -average precipitation amounts and flooding are generally expected in parts of Southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Central America, and northern areas of South America country-specific details.

In East Africa, especially the Horn of Africa, La Niña is expected to bring below‑average rainfall amounts during the October to December secondary short‑rains rainy season. This will likely affect both area planted and yields, with consequent reduction in crop production. In addition, prolonged dry

conditions are anticipated to further impact crop and livestock production, reducing food availability,

diminishing income opportunities for vulnerable households and exacerbating the already high food

prices. In Ethiopia, the food security situation has generally improved since last September following

the 2025 Meher harvest, which has increased domestic food availability. However, in southern and south eastern pastoral areas, forecasts point to below-average precipitation amounts during the

October to December “Deyr/Hageya” rainy season, which should negatively affect livestock body

conditions and the availability of livestock products and likely raise the level of acute food insecurity.

The expected poor performance of the October to December rains is likely to adversely affect the food security situation also in northern and eastern parts of Kenya and in central and northern parts of

Somalia. The number of people facing severe acute food insecurity is projected to increase in Kenya from 1.8 million between July and September 2025 to 2.1 million between October 2025 and January 2026, and in Somalia from 3.4 million between July and September 2025 to 4.4 million between October and December 2025.

In the Near East and Central Asia, weather forecasts indicate a heightened risk of below‑average

precipitation between November 2025 and April 2026. The anticipated rainfall deficit is likely to

constrain planting operations and reduce yields of the 2026 main wheat crop, a key staple in the

subregion, given that adequate moisture is essential to ensure proper crop emergence and early growth.

In addition, snow accumulation is likely to be below average, increasing the risk of winterkill as crops will lack protective adequate snow cover and reducing the availability of irrigation water for spring and summer crops. In the Syrian Arab Republic, if the forecast of below‑average precipitation amounts between November 2025 and March 2026 materialises, cereal production in 2026 will likely remain below average for the second consecutive year, exacerbating the already critical food insecurity conditions, with about 9.1 million people acutely food insecure in 2024, including 5.4 million people at risk of hunger.

In South Eastern parts of South America and the United States of America, projected dry weather conditions could affect soybean, maize and rice crops during the vegetative to harvest stages.

Although in some areas precipitation amounts are forecast to be above average with likely benefits to

crops, excessive rainfall amounts may raise the risk of flooding, which could affect standing crops, wash away stored seeds, increase mortality of livestock, damage agricultural infrastructures and cause

population displacement. Excessive humidity levels could further elevate the risk of pest and disease

infestations, potentially reducing yields and causing outbreaks of animal diseases.

In Southern Africa, current weather forecasts indicate a higher likelihood of above-average rainfall through the start of the season. Based on historical episodes of La Niña events, production prospects for the 2026 cereal crop are generally positive in central and southern areas. However, the elevated likelihood of excessive rainfall, coupled with a likely intense cyclone season from November  2025 to April 2026, could result in increased flood‑related crop losses, particularly in Madagascar and Mozambique where cyclones most frequently make landfall. In Southeast Asia and Australia, La Niña typically triggers excessive rains and an increased risk of flooding and landslides from October to March, raising concerns over planting activities and the early development of the 2026 main rice and maize crops.

In Central America and the Caribbean, above-average precipitation amounts and increased cyclone activity are forecast between October and November  2025, which could have serious implications for the agricultural sector. In several parts of the world, countries are already experiencing La Niña-like conditions. Between late August and September, floods affected parts of West and Central Africa as well as in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, South Sudan and the Sudan, while early signs of drought are evident in some parts of Near East and Central Asia, including Afghanistan, Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic.

United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) will continue to closely monitor the evolution of La Niña and other weather anomalies in the coming months to assess the potential impacts on crop production and food security.

To anticipate and mitigate the impacts of droughts and floods on the agriculture sector, countries

can implement a range of measures. Listed below, is a non‑exhaustive list of key actions that could

be adapted to the specific situation of the country.

Recommended anticipatory actions:

Drought:

• Distribute farming tools and seeds of drought‑tolerant crop varieties well ahead of planting seasons.

• Provide livestock feed and animal health support, with particular emphasis on chemicals for a regular dipping regime and vaccines to prevent diseases.

• Rehabilitate irrigation intakes, canals and other communal water points to improve water access.

• Strengthen farmers’ capacity in water-harvesting techniques and water management.

• Develop capacity of farmers and provide support in post-harvest management and processing to minimise losses.

Floods:

• Establish food storage sites and provide storage equipment (e.g., hermetic bags) to reduce post harvest losses.
• Monitor cyclone activity, prepare of actionable advisories and deliver early of humanitarian assistance (such as unconditional cash transfers) to vulnerable households upon early warnings and ahead of landfall.

• Support livestock evacuation from areas exposed to flood risks, supply fodder to evacuation centres and provide vaccines and supplements for livestock.

• Identify dry-docks and safe havens to host boats and store fishing gear and agriculture tools.

• Promote early harvesting of crops as soon as floods or cyclones are forecast and before the peak impacts occur

Multiple hazards:

• Strengthen community-based early warning systems and develop the capacity of communities on linking warnings to anticipatory action.

• Distribute vegetable gardening inputs, short‑cycle seeds and micro-irrigation systems to ensure

availability of food ahead of the harvesting period.

• Provide cash for work (ideally via government social protection systems) to support the rapid construction/reinforcement of community infrastructures (e.g., evacuation centres for livestock, water drainage systems).

• Provide of Cash+ through government targeting system (with the “+” component to be tailored to community needs).

• Provide unconditional cash transfers between the issuance of a hazard forecast and the peak of its impacts on the local populations.

Team Maverick