SBI Apprehends An Overall Inflation Surge By 20-30 BPS On Account Of CPI Base Year Revision.

Mumbai; January 2026: After the revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year, overall CPI inflation is expected to rise marginally by 20-30 basis points (bps), according to a report by SBI Ecowrap. The report stated that applying the new weights to the unchanged index results in a marginal increase of approximately 20-30 bps in overall inflation. However, it also highlighted that in months when food inflation is higher, the new CPI should be 20-30 bps lower than the earlier series.

It stated “By considering the new weights on unchanged index, we have calculated New CPI with old indices and found that overall CPI will increase marginally by 20-30 bps”. The findings come in the backdrop of the revision of the CPI base year to 2023-24 from 2011-12. To ensure a more accurate

CPI measurement that reflects changing household consumption behaviour and incorporates global best practices and methodological developments, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) had constituted an expert group. The recommendations of this expert group were released on Thursday.

According to the report, the expert group has detailed the entire process followed for the base revision exercise. It also outlined the enhancements and modifications introduced in the new CPI series, referred to as CPI 2024, along with comprehensive recommendations. The new CPI 2024 series will consist of 358 weighted items. These items are mapped across 12 Divisions, 43 Groups, 62 Classes and 192 Sub-classes.

The report further noted that the first CPI 2024 data release will take place on February 12, 2026. This release will include index data starting from January 2025 onwards and inflation data for January 2026.

In addition, the All-India level back series for Rural, Urban and Combined sectors, starting from January 2013, will also be released on the same date. The revision has also led to notable changes in the CPI’s weight structure at the All-India (Combined) level.

Under the old 2012 series, the weight of food and beverages stood at old 2012 series, the weight of food and beverages stood at 45.86, which has now been reduced to 36.75 in the new 2024 series. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels saw an increase in weight from 16.91 to 17.66, while transport, information and communication rose sharply from 8.59 to 12.41.

Other categories such as health increased from 5.89 to 6.10, furnishings and household maintenance from 3.80 to 4.47, and personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services from 3.89 to 5.04. The report noted that these changes reflect evolving consumption patterns and are expected to improve the accuracy of inflation measurement going forward.

Earlier yesterday, while highlighting the Economic Survey in the Houses Of the Parliament, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had assured that:

• the Survey highlights the strong revival of the Manufacturing sector growth of 7.72% and 9.13% in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2025-26 respectively, driven by the PLI scheme and reforms.

• As of September 2025, the PLI schemes have realised actual investments of over Rs 02 lakh crore, resulting in incremental production of over Rs 18.70 lakh crore and creating employment for over 12.60 lakh people.

• Reflecting the government’s push for modernisation, medium and high technology activities now account for 46.3% of India’s total manufacturing value added.

• Highlighting further strengthening the human capital, Sitharaman said as highlighted in the Economic Survey 2025 26, India’s growth strategy is anchored in strengthening human capital, with measurable gains in both education and health outcomes.

School education is moving decisively toward quality, with 13,076 PM SHRI schools operating as model institutions and post-pandemic learning recovery evident in foundational skills, where Grade III mathematics proficiency has risen to 65% from 42% in 2021.

Digital integration is accelerating through more than 4.6 crore APAAR IDs, enabling seamless tracking of student progress.

Higher education capacity has expanded alongside rising standards, with the Gross Enrolment Ratio increasing to 29.5, supported by the expansion of premier institutions to 23 IITs, 21 IIMs, and 20 AIIMS, including international campuses that extend India’s academic presence globally.

Health indicators show parallel structural progress. Infant mortality has declined from 40 in 2013 to 25 in 2023, reflecting sustained improvements in public health delivery. A nationwide primary healthcare network is now anchored by 1.82 lakh Ayushman Arogya Mandirs, while 42.78 crore Ayushman cards and over 10.98 crore hospital admissions demonstrate large-scale protection for families. Disease control efforts continue to strengthen, with tuberculosis incidence falling 21% since 2015.

While further commending the survey, the Finance minister has recognised that the ‘State capacity’ is the foundation on which strategic resilience is built and the pathway through which strategic indispensability becomes possible. Strategic resilience is co-created through the everyday behaviour of the State, firms, and citizens, and rests on a shared obligation and a reciprocal contract across the three. The Survey has noted that the State-level deregulation drive is gaining momentum, in the spirit of cooperative & competitive federalism.

It is of immense eagerness to watch the Union Fiscal Budget presentation by the Honourable Finance Minister on 01st February 2026.

But the Economic Survey and the SBI report demonstrates a stark uprise in consumer good prices pinching the common man’s pocket.

Suvro Sanyal – Team Maverick