Oil Prices Jump 10%, With Possibilities Of Touching $100 Per Barrel.

London; March 2026: Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.

The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.

“While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz”, said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.

Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20% of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz. “We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait”, Parmar said.

However as per recent assertion from the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Iran is not going to obstruct the Strait Of Hormuz.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Rabobank analysts slightly less bullish, seeing prices holding above $90 a barrel in the near term.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2% of global demand.

While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi’s pipeline, said Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens. The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies. Kpler analysts said in a webinar on Sunday that India might turn to Russian oil to make up for potential Middle East supply loss.

Meanwhile, Asian governments and refiners rushed to assess oil stockpiles as well as alternative shipping routes and supplies as the Iran conflict disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices expected to rise when trading resumes on Monday. Asia is expected to experience the biggest impact from any disruption in Middle East oil supply as it buys two-thirds of its crude from the Gulf, with half of top global importer China’s supply and 90% of Japan’s coming from the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and on a typical day tankers carrying the equivalent of 20% of global oil consumption pass through it with cargoes from producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.

Japanese shipping firms said they are halting operations around the Strait of Hormuz, although Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Tokyo had not received any reports of an immediate impact on supply for Japan.

However, Indian state refiners have already started scouting for alternative supplies, two refining officials said, declining to be identified. India, the world’s No.2 oil importer, has been increasing imports from the Middle East to replace Russian crude. “Our team is already engaged with other suppliers”, one of the officials said, adding that Indian state refiners have reserves of 20 days of crude and liquefied petroleum gas, which is sufficient if the situation eases in coming days.

June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, said oil prices would likely trade higher, with the impact tempered by an expected increase in production from the OPEC+ producers group.

She noted that oil infrastructure was not yet affected. “The industry is currently grappling with a slowdown in shipping activity via the Strait of Hormuz due to insurability, not an outright blockade”, she said.

Several tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait.

The South Korean government will offer petroleum from its stockpiles to local industries if any supply disruptions are prolonged, the industry ministry said in a statement on Sunday following an emergency meeting. An official from a local refiner said South Korea’s oil stockpiles held jointly with state-run Korean National Oil Corporation can last seven months. “We are checking if any vessels are still allowed to sail through the Strait now”, he added. “But if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, we will seek spot supplies in Asia. We need to see which countries release such spot supplies then”, he said.

South Korean refiners HD Hyundai Oilbank and GS Caltex said they are monitoring the situation. Hyundai Oilbank said it has yet to halt oil loadings in the Middle East.

On the otherside, China has bulked up its crude stockpiles in recent months, with imports hitting a record in December. In Taiwan, oil and liquefied natural gas suppliers are proceeding with shipments as scheduled, the economy ministry said, adding that the portion of oil and gas imports from the Middle East has been decreasing annually.

Team Maverick.