United States Just Managed To Achieve Regime Tweaking And Not Regime Change IN Venezuela.

Washington; January 2026: This refers to keeping the targeted state’s power structure in place but after some (at times significant) changes that advance the meddling state’s interests. Some American critics of the “special military operation” in Venezuela claim that it didn’t succeed despite President Nicolas Maduro’s capture since the “Chavismo deep state” that he presided over remains in place. This refers to the explicitly ideological elements of his country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies but can be expanded to include governors and trade unions among other groups. The point is that removing Maduro from the political equation didn’t result in regime change.

The National Security Strategy’s prioritisation of the Western Hemisphere is all about building “Fortress America”, which refers to the restoration of the US hegemony over the Americas in order for it to survive and even thrive if it loses control of the Eastern Hemisphere. It might not happen right away, but the US’ “special military operation” will likely result in it obtaining control over Venezuela’s oil reserves, undoubtedly the largest in the world. That would help make “Fortress America” a reality.

Moreover, Venezuela has an estimated $20 billion worth of Soviet/Russian arms, including Sukhoi fighter jets and S-300 surface-to-air missiles, yet none were used against the US (possibly due to it buying off top defence officials). Russia and Venezuela also ratified a strategic partnership pact late last year too, but it importantly didn’t contain any mutual defence clauses. Nevertheless, these two factors will likely be exploited by adversarial media to discredit Russia after the US’ “special military operation” in Venezuela.

Colour Revolutions are one of the newest models of state destabilization. They allow external actors to plead plausible deniability when accused of illegally interfering in the domestic affairs of a sovereign state, and their mass mobilisation of ‘people power’ renders them highly effective in the eyes of the global media. Additionally, the conglomeration of large numbers of civilians protesting the government also increases pressure on that said government and limits its options in effectively dealing with the ongoing destabilization. All Colour Revolutions closely follow the same template, and understanding the nature of this applied tactic of destabilisation will allow states to craft suitable countermeasures against it.

That’s true, but the premise that US wanted to achieve such a goal is debatable since Trump 2.0 is comprised of figures who’ve criticised previous regime change operations for destabilising their regions and leading to unpredictable consequences that ultimately harmed US interests. It’s therefore plausible that they never intended to forcibly carry out regime change in Venezuela due to concerns that a civil war might follow, which could engender a large-scale migrant crisis and destroy energy infrastructure.

Rather, the immediate goal can be described as regime tweaking, which refers to keeping the targeted state’s power structure in place but after some (at times significant) changes that advance the meddling state’s interests. In the Venezuelan context, the US forcibly removed Maduro so that he’d be replaced by his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who Trump publicly expects to “do what we want” likely at Marco Rubio’s direction. That’s arguably what he meant by “running the country” till its transition is complete.

In an interview with major media representatives, President Trump told that US troops won’t be stationed in Venezuela so long as ousted strongman Nicolás Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, “does what we want” in the aftermath of a daring US raid that captured Maduro. Trump made the clarification moments after a press conference where he said that “we are going to run the country” ahead of a democratic transition, introducing the prospect of a US occupation. When asked by the media reporters, if “US troops will be on the ground helping run the country”, Trump said: “No, if Maduro’s vice president; if the vice president does what we want, we won’t have to do that”.

Such a transition might not result in regime change after Trump ruled out Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado leading Venezuela since “She doesn’t have the support or the respect”. He also didn’t mention “democracy” once during his press conference in a sign that he’s uninterested in a radical regime change from the Chavismo model to a Western one at least at this time. This hints that he’s open to Rodriguez or some other Chavista who he thinks the US can work with succeeding Maduro.

They’d have to enjoy the support of the powerful armed forces and militias in order to prevent a civil war, which ipso facto entails preserving at least some of their privileges, especially economic-financial ones. That said, the armed forces barely put up any resistance on Saturday so it’s possible that Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and Interior Minister Diosdado already clinched a deal with the US, only to talk tough in front of the cameras afterwards like Rodriguez has for domestic political reasons.

If an election is held within 30 days like Article 233 of the Constitution calls for, then the Defence and Interior Ministries would have to help secure it, thus reinforcing the importance of their chiefs supporting the US’ envisaged transition in Venezuela. The US doesn’t care how Venezuela is governed or who at least nominally rules it, just that US influence is restored, which could take the form of its oil only being sold to US-approved buyers and foreign rivals like China no longer having a foothold there.

Of course, de-idologising the Venezuelan “deep state” so that more easily manipulatable pro-Western figures replace the Chavistas would entrench the US’ newfound influence, but this can only be done gradually since moving too fast could spark a civil war and thus risk ultimately harming US interests. Some of the Chavismo model’s socio-economic programs and neighborhood organisations might also have to be preserved to prevent this. It’ll therefore be interesting to monitor how the transition unfolds.

Team Maverick.